http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...gionalForecast
" UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2013 to Friday 18 Jan 2013:
Rain will clear the far southeast early Wednesday, leaving most parts dry
with mix of cloud and sunshine, and overnight fog patches. However thicker
cloud and spells of rain will spread into western and northern parts towards
the end of the week, and may perhaps extend further southeast at times.
Temperatures are expected to be generally around normal with a risk of
overnight frosts, but perhaps turning occasionally milder in the west in the
more unsettled conditions. Little change into the weekend with an east-west
split expected, with western areas seeing further cloud, wind and rain, and
eastern areas staying largely dry with an increased chance of frost and fog.
From then on, it remains very uncertain but a probability of a trend to
colder conditions is increasing.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period,
though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder
conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the
risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of
wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.

Issued at: 1600 on Fri 4 Jan 2013 "
+++++++

Cautious words, but subtly different from yesterday. Knowing how these are
written I would say Exeter are getting concerned now about a long cold spell
developing. I wonder if John Hammond is on again tonight? :-)

Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) would indicate significant
blocking to our N or NW in the second half of January with an east or NE'ly
with the polar jet diving well south threatening sig. snow into the SW/S UK
and France. Too early to get too excited just yet, but I am beginning to get
that tingling feeling again :-)

And oh BTW, the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) is starting to look quite
dramatic now
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf

Time to check my water pipe insulation, get the car fully winter ready,
check all my warm outdoor clothing, chop a few more logs, lag the outside
tap, order some more heating oil, ....... grin

The TWO bulletin board is also hotting up, but not in meltdown just yet
VBG

Eskimo Will
--

On Friday, January 4, 2013 5:24:23 PM UTC, wrote:
Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) You mean the WeatherAction charts? Did you purchased them after all, yesterday? Fabulous reading aren't they. As Piers said "will be long remembered".........

On Friday, 4 January 2013 17:35:16 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
On Friday, January 4, 2013 5:24:23 PM UTC, wrote:

Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) You mean the WeatherAction charts? Did you purchased them after all, yesterday? Fabulous reading aren't they. As Piers said "will be long remembered".........

Are these the charts that are already incorrect and we're at Jan 4th? Something about High pressures extending from Greenland into N Scotland and/or complex low pressure over Scandinavia for Jan 1-3? Or the high to North strengthening further 4-7? Or the Jet Stream to the south over both these periods?

Of course there is a 25% chance the forecast is "unhelpful" I believe according to the caveats. At that rate, and with current mild/balmy conditions already different to his forecast, difficult to see how the rest of his forecast can be any more credible.

You're doing a great PR job for him though. Does he pay well?

On Friday, January 4, 2013 6:38:27 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 4 January 2013 17:35:16 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote: On Friday, January 4, 2013 5:24:23 PM UTC, wrote: Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) You mean the WeatherAction charts? Did you purchased them after all, yesterday? Fabulous reading aren't they. As Piers said "will be long remembered"......... Are these the charts that are already incorrect and we're at Jan 4th? Something about High pressures extending from Greenland into N Scotland and/or complex low pressure over Scandinavia for Jan 1-3? Or the high to North strengthening further 4-7? Or the Jet Stream to the south over both these periods? Of course there is a 25% chance the forecast is "unhelpful" I believe according to the caveats. At that rate, and with current mild/balmy conditions already different to his forecast, difficult to see how the rest of his forecast can be any more credible. You're doing a great PR job for him though. Does he pay well?

Are you sure you have the right forecast?

Money interests me not BTW. Only thing that interests me is getting the TRUTH out there. TRUTH is what humanity deserves

"Jim Cannon" wrote in message
...
On Friday, January 4, 2013 5:24:23 PM UTC,
wrote:
Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) You mean the WeatherAction
charts? Did you purchased them after all, yesterday? Fabulous reading
aren't they. As Piers said "will be long remembered".........


No *NOT* the WeatherAction charts, they were outputs from ECMWF (the best
NWP model in the world).

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Friday, 4 January 2013 18:58:06 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
On Friday, January 4, 2013 6:38:27 PM UTC, wrote:

On Friday, 4 January 2013 17:35:16 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote: On Friday, January 4, 2013 5:24:23 PM UTC, wrote: Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) You mean the WeatherAction charts? Did you purchased them after all, yesterday? Fabulous reading aren't they.. As Piers said "will be long remembered"......... Are these the charts that are already incorrect and we're at Jan 4th? Something about High pressures extending from Greenland into N Scotland and/or complex low pressure over Scandinavia for Jan 1-3? Or the high to North strengthening further 4-7? Or the Jet Stream to the south over both these periods? Of course there is a 25% chance the forecast is "unhelpful" I believe according to the caveats. At that rate, and with current mild/balmy conditions already different to his forecast, difficult to see how the rest of his forecast can be any more credible. You're doing a great PR job for him though. Does he pay well?



Are you sure you have the right forecast?



Money interests me not BTW. Only thing that interests me is getting the TRUTH out there. TRUTH is what humanity deserves

Well I'm sure about the actual weather but I can never be sure about the Weatheraction forecast. It's the output of a secret science and to quote it or reproduce it would only bring about the wrath of the author(s).

I'll leave it to you to expose the truth and give your own assessment as you have also read them. You can do humanity a favour...and I'm sure Piers won't mind you doing it for him.

Eskimo Will wrote:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...gionalForecast
" UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2013 to Friday 18 Jan 2013:
Rain will clear the far southeast early Wednesday, leaving most parts
dry with mix of cloud and sunshine, and overnight fog patches. However
thicker cloud and spells of rain will spread into western and northern
parts towards the end of the week, and may perhaps extend further
southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be generally around
normal with a risk of overnight frosts, but perhaps turning occasionally
milder in the west in the more unsettled conditions. Little change into
the weekend with an east-west split expected, with western areas seeing
further cloud, wind and rain, and eastern areas staying largely dry with
an increased chance of frost and fog. From then on, it remains very
uncertain but a probability of a trend to colder conditions is increasing.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast
period, though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a
trend to colder conditions relative to what we have seen so far this
winter. This brings the risk of spells of colder than average conditions
and an increased chance of wintry weather, especially across northern
and eastern areas of the UK.

Issued at: 1600 on Fri 4 Jan 2013 "
+++++++

Cautious words, but subtly different from yesterday. Knowing how these
are written I would say Exeter are getting concerned now about a long
cold spell developing. I wonder if John Hammond is on again tonight? :-)

Charts I have been privileged to see (not GFS) would indicate
significant blocking to our N or NW in the second half of January with
an east or NE'ly with the polar jet diving well south threatening sig.
snow into the SW/S UK and France. Too early to get too excited just yet,
but I am beginning to get that tingling feeling again :-)

And oh BTW, the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) is starting to look
quite dramatic now
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf


Time to check my water pipe insulation, get the car fully winter ready,
check all my warm outdoor clothing, chop a few more logs, lag the
outside tap, order some more heating oil, ....... grin

The TWO bulletin board is also hotting up, but not in meltdown just yet
VBG

Eskimo Will
--------------------------------------------
Oh no! Not the extra logs and the privileged charts ;-)
That did for us last time!
Dave

On 4 Jan, 18:58, Jim Cannon wrote:


Money interests me not BTW. Only thing that interests me is getting the TRUTH out there. TRUTH is what humanity deserves

Big thick wands?
Do they have knobs at the end of them?