is going to be wiped by the mess from the West before it gets here.

http://www.cincfleetwoc.com/HF-Fax/N..._1200_T120.png

Thinking that there may be very little snow in the South with this...

Phil
Guildford

In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
is going to be wiped by the mess from the West before it gets here.

http://www.cincfleetwoc.com/HF-Fax/N...ic/NEATL_AB_Su
rfacePrognosis_UNCL_1200_T120.png

Thinking that there may be very little snow in the South with this...

That looks pretty much in line with what recent operational runs of the
three main models have been saying (with the addition of fronts on that
chart, of course).
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
is going to be wiped by the mess from the West before it gets here.

http://www.cincfleetwoc.com/HF-Fax/N...ic/NEATL_AB_Su
rfacePrognosis_UNCL_1200_T120.png

Thinking that there may be very little snow in the South with this...

That looks pretty much in line with what recent operational runs of the
three main models have been saying (with the addition of fronts on that
chart, of course).
--------------------------------------------
Yes, it looks like this one may over trump strat warming and our will
power ;-) . Still at least one thing is consistent every winter - the
difficulty computer models have in predicting extreme cold!

Was the beast form the east just another fantasy

I fancy Monday to Thursday dry, sunny and very cold a messy breakdown on
Friday with perhaps some more sleet (may as well make it 5 sleet days this
month) then back to the wet and windy stuff by next weekend.

Ah well the beast retreats yet again without as much as a fight LOL


Graham

Graham wrote:



Was the beast form the east just another fantasy

I fancy Monday to Thursday dry, sunny and very cold a messy breakdown on
Friday with perhaps some more sleet (may as well make it 5 sleet days this
month) then back to the wet and windy stuff by next weekend.

Ah well the beast retreats yet again without as much as a fight LOL


Graham

What is interesting is that the two main medium range models (ECMWF and GFS)
homed in on the easterly blast at around the same time and persisted with it
for a couple of days then discarded it at about the same time. Bearing in mind
that these two models run completely independent of one another (I think!) that
seems a remarkable coincidence. Perhaps they were both led astray by some
inaccuracies in the analysis fields though those would have had to persist for
a couple of days to produce the observed results. Or perhaps the is a common
flaw in the physics of the two models. It's well outside of my field of
expertise but I find it hard to believe that both models threw a wobbly for a
couple of days at the same time without there being a link.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

Norman wrote:
Graham wrote:


Was the beast form the east just another fantasy

I fancy Monday to Thursday dry, sunny and very cold a messy breakdown on
Friday with perhaps some more sleet (may as well make it 5 sleet days this
month) then back to the wet and windy stuff by next weekend.

Ah well the beast retreats yet again without as much as a fight LOL


Graham

What is interesting is that the two main medium range models (ECMWF and GFS)
homed in on the easterly blast at around the same time and persisted with it
for a couple of days then discarded it at about the same time. Bearing in mind
that these two models run completely independent of one another (I think!) that
seems a remarkable coincidence. Perhaps they were both led astray by some
inaccuracies in the analysis fields though those would have had to persist for
a couple of days to produce the observed results. Or perhaps the is a common
flaw in the physics of the two models. It's well outside of my field of
expertise but I find it hard to believe that both models threw a wobbly for a
couple of days at the same time without there being a link.

-----------------------------------------
I've thought for some time that the computers are bigger, can do more
number crunching, but nothing has led me to believe the atmospheric
modelling from the data has advanced much. In fact could the additional
power be over complicating things?

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
news
Norman wrote:
Graham wrote:


Was the beast form the east just another fantasy

I fancy Monday to Thursday dry, sunny and very cold a messy breakdown on
Friday with perhaps some more sleet (may as well make it 5 sleet days
this
month) then back to the wet and windy stuff by next weekend.

Ah well the beast retreats yet again without as much as a fight LOL


Graham

What is interesting is that the two main medium range models (ECMWF and
GFS)
homed in on the easterly blast at around the same time and persisted with
it
for a couple of days then discarded it at about the same time. Bearing in
mind
that these two models run completely independent of one another (I
think!) that
seems a remarkable coincidence. Perhaps they were both led astray by some
inaccuracies in the analysis fields though those would have had to
persist for
a couple of days to produce the observed results. Or perhaps the is a
common
flaw in the physics of the two models. It's well outside of my field of
expertise but I find it hard to believe that both models threw a wobbly
for a
couple of days at the same time without there being a link.

-----------------------------------------
I've thought for some time that the computers are bigger, can do more
number crunching, but nothing has led me to believe the atmospheric
modelling from the data has advanced much. In fact could the additional
power be over complicating things?

As Will has really stuck his neck out over this one ,it will be very
interesting to get his analysis
once the dust ( or rain) settles .
Looking at the models tonight it seems a racing certainty that the cold
spell will be very transitory this time ,but is often repeated 'it aint over
yet til the fat lady sings'.

RonB

On Dec 8, 7:07*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Phil Layton writes:

is going to be wiped by the mess from the West before it gets here.

http://www.cincfleetwoc.com/HF-Fax/N...ic/NEATL_AB_Su
rfacePrognosis_UNCL_1200_T120.png

Thinking that there may be very little snow in the South with this...

That looks pretty much in line with what recent operational runs of the
three main models have been saying (with the addition of fronts on that
chart, of course).

It falls apart into at least three centres at this time tomorrow. They
can swirl about each other when there is an Indian ocean storm, even
go retrograde.

Lots of occlusions though so quite warm. Maybe even warm enough to
snow. hat would require a Greenland High though. And for us to get our
traditionally wet stuff we need that Low further west.

What it looks most like doing is Lake Effect over Michigan and
Illinois.

"ron button" wrote in message
...

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
news
Norman wrote:
Graham wrote:


Was the beast form the east just another fantasy

I fancy Monday to Thursday dry, sunny and very cold a messy breakdown
on
Friday with perhaps some more sleet (may as well make it 5 sleet days
this
month) then back to the wet and windy stuff by next weekend.

Ah well the beast retreats yet again without as much as a fight LOL


Graham

What is interesting is that the two main medium range models (ECMWF and
GFS)
homed in on the easterly blast at around the same time and persisted
with it
for a couple of days then discarded it at about the same time. Bearing
in mind
that these two models run completely independent of one another (I
think!) that
seems a remarkable coincidence. Perhaps they were both led astray by
some
inaccuracies in the analysis fields though those would have had to
persist for
a couple of days to produce the observed results. Or perhaps the is a
common
flaw in the physics of the two models. It's well outside of my field of
expertise but I find it hard to believe that both models threw a wobbly
for a
couple of days at the same time without there being a link.

-----------------------------------------
I've thought for some time that the computers are bigger, can do more
number crunching, but nothing has led me to believe the atmospheric
modelling from the data has advanced much. In fact could the additional
power be over complicating things?

As Will has really stuck his neck out over this one ,it will be very
interesting to get his analysis
once the dust ( or rain) settles .
Looking at the models tonight it seems a racing certainty that the cold
spell will be very transitory this time ,but is often repeated 'it aint
over yet til the fat lady sings'.


I'm glad I stuck to my guns. Still uncertainty this morning and if anything
the runs are looking colder again and more snowy. I'm not surprised as I
kept pointing out the ensemble clusters were not all going for mild
zonality. Add to that the bit of stratwarm and the fact that the MetO
seasonal models were going for colder than average due to increased Eurasian
snow cover. Weather forecasting is not all about taking the latest runs from
the big models it is about using the bigger picture provided by ensembles
etc. Anyway the detail is still very unclear and we have a fascinating week
ahead. I'm off out for a walk today to clear my head!

Will
--

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...


I'm glad I stuck to my guns. Still uncertainty this morning and if
anything the runs are looking colder again and more snowy. I'm not
surprised as I kept pointing out the ensemble clusters were not all going
for mild zonality. Add to that the bit of stratwarm and the fact that the
MetO seasonal models were going for colder than average due to increased
Eurasian snow cover. Weather forecasting is not all about taking the
latest runs from the big models it is about using the bigger picture
provided by ensembles etc. Anyway the detail is still very unclear and we
have a fascinating week ahead. I'm off out for a walk today to clear my
head!


I hope you are right.
Can you imagine the 'I told you so!' smugness from Dawlish if you're not?
It would be unbearable.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl