I expect a yellow warning will be issued tomorrow for torrential rain.

Ex Nadine will be influencing developments in Biscay this weekend. Couple
that with a trough extending SE from Iceland, the ingredients are there for
an interesting cyclogenesis in the SW of England. Warm moist tropical air
will be entrained with some mid-level instability leading to torrential
downpours and possibly localised strong winds, although I think the main
emphasis will be on the rain during Sunday and Monday.

Models are oscillating at present and any low may yet stay to the south of
the UK but with an upper trough extending from the NW I think the writing is
on the wall for some severe weather!
Note 06Z GFS even brings ex Nadine herself into the UK on Tuesday, not sure
about that, but if it happens it could be very nasty.

I'm going to get on with outdoor stuff this week :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message
...
I expect a yellow warning will be issued tomorrow for torrential rain.

Ex Nadine will be influencing developments in Biscay this weekend. Couple
that with a trough extending SE from Iceland, the ingredients are there
for an interesting cyclogenesis in the SW of England. Warm moist tropical
air will be entrained with some mid-level instability leading to
torrential downpours and possibly localised strong winds, although I think
the main emphasis will be on the rain during Sunday and Monday.

Models are oscillating at present and any low may yet stay to the south of
the UK but with an upper trough extending from the NW I think the writing
is on the wall for some severe weather!
Note 06Z GFS even brings ex Nadine herself into the UK on Tuesday, not
sure about that, but if it happens it could be very nasty.

I'm going to get on with outdoor stuff this week :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------


It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

Cheers, Alastair

On Wednesday, 19 September 2012 14:56:06 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

And spelt out very well, too. Great stuff.

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 19 September 2012 14:56:06 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

And spelt out very well, too. Great stuff.

Indeed. On the face of it very much a 'don't know' situation but
with all three scenarios explained in terms even I can understand.
No inane talk of 'weather fronts here'!

I've never seen 'Weatherwise' is it a late night thing?
If so with me being an early bird I'm rarely up late.
It's a pity the earlier broadcasts aren't like this.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Col wrote:


"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 19 September 2012 14:56:06 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

And spelt out very well, too. Great stuff.

Indeed. On the face of it very much a 'don't know' situation but
with all three scenarios explained in terms even I can understand.
No inane talk of 'weather fronts here'!

I've never seen 'Weatherwise' is it a late night thing?
If so with me being an early bird I'm rarely up late.
It's a pity the earlier broadcasts aren't like this.

It makes a nonsense of the 'take-it-or-leave-it' 5-day forecasts (and longer)
that proliferate on the web these days, including the Met Office website.

I got a feeling from the clip that the legacy of the October 1987 storm is
still very much at the forefront of the Met Office corporate mind. Full marks,
though, for flagging the possibility at this early stage but I wonder if it
would have been flagged now if the Oct 1987 storm had never happened.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

"Norman" wrote in message
...
Col wrote:


"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 19 September 2012 14:56:06 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

And spelt out very well, too. Great stuff.

Indeed. On the face of it very much a 'don't know' situation but
with all three scenarios explained in terms even I can understand.
No inane talk of 'weather fronts here'!

I've never seen 'Weatherwise' is it a late night thing?
If so with me being an early bird I'm rarely up late.
It's a pity the earlier broadcasts aren't like this.

It makes a nonsense of the 'take-it-or-leave-it' 5-day forecasts (and
longer)
that proliferate on the web these days, including the Met Office website.

I got a feeling from the clip that the legacy of the October 1987 storm is
still very much at the forefront of the Met Office corporate mind. Full
marks,
though, for flagging the possibility at this early stage but I wonder if
it
would have been flagged now if the Oct 1987 storm had never happened.


The Oct '87 storm is almost ancient history now. The answer is yes, the Met
office has moved on a lot since then Norman.

Will
--

On Sep 19, 8:20*pm, "Norman" wrote:
Col wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, 19 September 2012 14:56:06 UTC+1, Alastair *wrote:

It is spelt out with pictures by BBC Weather's Alex Deakin he

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

And spelt out very well, too. Great stuff.

Indeed. On the face of it very much a 'don't know' situation but
with all three scenarios explained in terms even I can understand.
No inane talk of 'weather fronts here'!

I've never seen 'Weatherwise' is it a late night thing?
If so with me being an early bird I'm rarely up late.
It's a pity the earlier broadcasts aren't like this.

It makes a nonsense of the 'take-it-or-leave-it' 5-day forecasts (and longer)
that proliferate on the web these days, including the Met Office website.

I got a feeling from the clip that the legacy of the October 1987 storm is
still very much at the forefront of the Met Office corporate mind. Full marks,
though, for flagging the possibility at this early stage but I wonder if it
would have been flagged now if the Oct 1987 storm had never happened.

How could a hurricane now a former hurricane trap "all that warm air
in it"?

It looked like he was spelling the whole alphabet. And using all the
flags in the war chest to do it with. All without a trace of
uncertainty in his well practised act.

What it amounted to was an it could be this or it could be that
forecast. And that means....

On Wed, 19 Sep 2012 at 19:20:01, Norman wrote
in uk.sci.weather :

I got a feeling from the clip that the legacy of the October 1987 storm is
still very much at the forefront of the Met Office corporate mind. Full marks,
though, for flagging the possibility at this early stage but I wonder if it
would have been flagged now if the Oct 1987 storm had never happened.

BTW, does anyone else feel sorry for Bill Giles every time that is
mentioned - the infamous clip *always* gets cut short after his 'no
hurricane' comment.

Fortunately this one isn't...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXoM9hNuY-4
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Col" wrote in message
news
I've never seen 'Weatherwise' is it a late night thing?

I don't know.

On BBC 1 TV at lunchtime, the weather forecaster mentioned that his
colleague went into more depth about the possibility of Nadine hitting us
(he did not really say that) on the web. So, when Will posted his
message, I went to the BBC weather website and eventually found that
clip. I thought it was more interesting than the usual BBC stuff so I
posted the link here. Pleased to hear others like it too.

Cheers, Alastair,

On 19/09/2012 14:18, Dartmoor Will wrote:


http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

I'm warming to your agreement with the Met office long range forecast
for the coming WInter WIll - or should that be colding ;-))
Cheers
James