Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and how
changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst others
failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change 'boy' to 'man'
"A neighbour put his budgerigar in the mincing machine and invented
shredded tweet." - Chic Murray
openSUSE Linux: http://www.opensuse.org/en/

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...
Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and how
changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst others
failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia


Interesting, but ...

She writes:

"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale of our
lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The changes could be
slow enough, even now, that it transcends generations. And we have to
prepare a long time for them."

I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all time low,
and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If it continues to
melt at the current rate until mid September then the new extent could
be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of approx. 4 M sq km.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the US,
Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising sharply.

To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!

Cheers, Alastair.

On 24/08/12 20:47, Alastair McDonald wrote:
"Graham P wrote in message
news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...
Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and how
changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst others
failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia


Interesting, but ...

She writes:

"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale of our
lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The changes could be
slow enough, even now, that it transcends generations. And we have to
prepare a long time for them."

I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all time low,
and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If it continues to
melt at the current rate until mid September then the new extent could
be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of approx. 4 M sq km.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the US,
Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising sharply.

To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!

Cheers, Alastair.



It is interesting that the record low this year has occurred despite the
ice extent being near average at the spring peak.

If we reached a point where the sea ice disappeared during the summer,
does anyone know what the consequences would be in terms of changes to
global or UK weather patterns?

On Friday, 24 August 2012 21:29:59 UTC+1, Adam Lea wrote:
On 24/08/12 20:47, Alastair McDonald wrote:

"Graham P wrote in message

news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...

Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and how

changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst others

failed.



http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia





Interesting, but ...



She writes:



"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale of our

lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The changes could be

slow enough, even now, that it transcends generations. And we have to

prepare a long time for them."



I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all time low,

and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If it continues to

melt at the current rate until mid September then the new extent could

be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of approx. 4 M sq km.



http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm



New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the US,

Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising sharply.



To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!



Cheers, Alastair.







It is interesting that the record low this year has occurred despite the

ice extent being near average at the spring peak.



If we reached a point where the sea ice disappeared during the summer,

does anyone know what the consequences would be in terms of changes to

global or UK weather patterns?

Simple Adam: We've been through a warm period so ice is thin but as has always been the history of the planet climate changes . We are now on the cusp of a cooling period. Arctic temps 80 degrees N are no higher than the past, Global Temps have levelled off and will slighty trend down. The arctic ice will freeze rapidly as the building process begins again.


I have to wonder how did climate ever manage to change before humans came along?

Adam Lea wrote:
On 24/08/12 20:47, Alastair McDonald wrote:
"Graham P wrote in message
news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...
Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and
how changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst
others failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia


Interesting, but ...

She writes:

"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale
of our lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The
changes could be slow enough, even now, that it transcends
generations. And we have to prepare a long time for them."

I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all
time low, and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If
it continues to melt at the current rate until mid September then
the new extent could be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of
approx. 4 M sq km.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the
US, Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising
sharply. To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!

Cheers, Alastair.



It is interesting that the record low this year has occurred despite
the ice extent being near average at the spring peak.


Adam

This probably gives an indication of the average thickness of the ice when
it was at its maximum extent this spring. The thinner the ice, the more
rapidly it will melt and the speed at which the ice has been melting
recently, particularly in the region to the north of eastern Siberia, is
quite remarkable.

Roger

On Aug 24, 9:51*pm, "Roger Smith" wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:
On 24/08/12 20:47, Alastair McDonald wrote:
"Graham P *wrote in message
news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...
Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and
how changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst
others failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia

Interesting, but ...

She writes:

"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale
of our lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The
changes could be slow enough, even now, that it transcends
generations. And we have to prepare a long time for them."

I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all
time low, and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If
it continues to melt at the current rate until mid September then
the new extent could be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of
approx. 4 M sq km.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the
US, Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising
sharply. To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!

Cheers, Alastair.

It is interesting that the record low this year has occurred despite
the ice extent being near average at the spring peak.

Adam

This probably gives an indication of the average thickness of the ice when
it was at its maximum extent this spring. *The thinner the ice, the more
rapidly it will melt and the speed at which the ice has been melting
recently, particularly in the region to the north of eastern Siberia, is
quite remarkable.

Until the recent Russian floods (I am not sure what areas were
affected) Siberia has been in drought. This may have lasted several
years. Judging from the low number of Atlantic Tropical storms since
2005, I'd guess it is cyclical, compounded by decades of
mismanagement.

Nothing to do with cows farting or cars exhausting.
Whatever the case, I imagine it could easily take 4 weeks for the
flooding to reach the Arctic if it IS going there.

Since the Taiga is still more or less intact for now, surface water
take-up will be slow. SSSsssslllllloooooow...ohwohwwwww.

If it's headed down the Rhine or into the Med., it's off on the wrong
tack.

If that empire did exist and disappeared in a few centuries it must
have fragmented due to market forces and internecine politics. That's
what happened to Rome.

In Australia an hundred years after the idiots started chopping all
the trees down, bigger idiots almost completely overgrazed the whole
continent. Now it is periodically ravaged by drought and pestilences
of small, fast breeding animals.

The same is happening all across Asia these days from Pakistan to
China, forests are being turned into desert in a matter of decades.
With the Harrapans, I imagine primitive smelters, shipping and housing
saw off most of their virgin forests and overgrazing finished the rest
off.

It would have to have been a well organised system to manage that.

On Fri, 24 Aug 2012 21:29:59 +0100
Adam Lea wrote:

If we reached a point where the sea ice disappeared during the
summer, does anyone know what the consequences would be in terms of
changes to global or UK weather patterns?

No. We can't even be sure what whether the Arctic would get a complete
cover of ice again during the winter. Fifty years or so ago, it was
thought that the ice may not reform; now, computer models say it will
reform so there's nothing to worry about. But, hang on a minute, didn't
computer models completely fail to predict the current rate of melting?
Ooh-er!

Another theory from that era said that the increased moisture from an
ice-free Arctic could trigger a sudden glaciation in the northern
hemisphere. But never mind, the computer models say there isn't a
chance of that happening. Oh, frack!


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change 'boy' to 'man'
"A neighbour put his budgerigar in the mincing machine and invented
shredded tweet." - Chic Murray
openSUSE Linux: http://www.opensuse.org/en/

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
news:20120824221639.78fe2557@home-1...
On Fri, 24 Aug 2012 21:29:59 +0100
Adam Lea wrote:

If we reached a point where the sea ice disappeared during the
summer, does anyone know what the consequences would be in terms of
changes to global or UK weather patterns?

No. We can't even be sure what whether the Arctic would get a complete
cover of ice again during the winter. Fifty years or so ago, it was
thought that the ice may not reform; now, computer models say it will
reform so there's nothing to worry about. But, hang on a minute, didn't
computer models completely fail to predict the current rate of melting?
Ooh-er!

Another theory from that era said that the increased moisture from an
ice-free Arctic could trigger a sudden glaciation in the northern
hemisphere. But never mind, the computer models say there isn't a
chance of that happening. Oh, frack!

Yes. All I will add is that since it is obvious that the models are wrong,
even if they had been used to predict the climate "after the ice" the
predictions would be worthless.

Cheers. Alastair.

On Aug 24, 9:29*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 24/08/12 20:47, Alastair McDonald wrote:









"Graham P *wrote in message
news:20120824190632.73d876b6@home-1...
Research into climate change in India over the past 5,000 years and how
changes in the monsoon benefited some civilisations whilst others
failed.

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/LiviuIndia

Interesting, but ...

She writes:

"We expect events in climate to be intelligible to us on the scale of our
lifetimes, or our children's lifetimes. They are not. The changes could be
slow enough, even now, that it transcends generations. And we have to
prepare a long time for them."

I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all time low,
and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If it continues to
melt at the current rate until mid September then the new extent could
be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of approx. 4 M sq km.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

New Scientist is reporting that this year there are droughts in the US,
Russia, and Australia. As a result the price of food is rising sharply.

To be honest, I AM beginning to panic!

Cheers, Alastair.

It is interesting that the record low this year has occurred despite the
ice extent being near average at the spring peak.

If we reached a point where the sea ice disappeared during the summer,
does anyone know what the consequences would be in terms of changes to
global or UK weather patterns?

Yes.

"Alastair McDonald" wrote in message
...
I don't think so. The Arctic sea ice extent has just hit a new all time
low,
and it could continue melting for another four weeks. If it continues to
melt at the current rate until mid September then the new extent could
be 2 M sq km, half of the old record minimum of approx. 4 M sq km.

I'm tempted to say that's just typical of the scaremongering that surrounds
GW/AGW and that gives it a bad name, but let me just say that it's a huge
if. The melting will, in all probability, continue for another 3-4 weeks but
at a progressively slower rate until it asymptotes in mid-September. It will
be a very significant event in defining a new recent minimum but there would
be quite long odds against it reaching 2 million sqkm this year. If it gets
down to 3.5 million or maybe slightly lower then that would be quite a
significant milestone in my book, reaching eg half the 1980's mean value and
noteworthy for that reason. (Of course, next year there will be more
first-year ice than ever - in the recent past - and if the current El Nino
continues to develop...)

What's actually happening is noteworthy enough, without needless
exaggeration.

JGD