Lua a Cat 1 in the Southern Indian Ocean is going to make it to Cat 2
tonight according to:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

It looks on this loop:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

....to be a doozy.

Instead of injecting into the Antarctic loop immediately, it is going
to join forces with a Queensland Low and cause some long needed more
flooding in the Lake Ayer basin.

The south central region of Australia had been suffering years of
drought until this cycle brought flooding to most of the Asian rim of
the Pacific.

Salt had become a major worry in the Lake Ayer region. Maybe this will
help.

When a large system of Low pressure is injected through the South
African continent, as happens in this spell's drama, then you know you
are going to be in for a ride. Of course, knowing where and when is
still in its early days.

Blocking Lows should be the norm with this spell:
Mar 15 01:25
Mar 22 14:37
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

Should be isn't is though!

From the BOM chart a lot of precipitation has been injected into the
sea south east of Cape Horn. Whilst the southern area looks calm at
the moment, it doesn't stay that way long.

The rotational wave takes said precipitate to the region south of the
Cape of Good Hope just in time for another injection of a little of
what I fancy is a cascade.

Meanwhile the wet air over Australia is still building.
Isobars get a little tight by mid day Monday at 60 East.

According to Darren Prescot on uk.sci.weather there will be a col over
Britain about then:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...46506ffb0e526#

So no blocking Low?

Pity. I have worked out that Blocking Highs mean a trip to Japan but I
failed to sort the blocking Lows out.

Can we have Blocking Cols?

Tuesday noon the Australian wet projects into Antarctica along the 140
E longitude joining a Low already in the 160 E longitude. So that
looks like it missed.

Early days yet, as I said. Plenty of things can go wrong on a 5 day
forecast. I'll keep a log of it at my blog if I don't get too badly
affected by things.

You have been warned.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ml?id=11238012

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/bl...earthquake-lua

On Mar 15, 12:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ml?id=11238012

2012/03/17

5.5 M. @ 17:00 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 M. @ 15:49 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 M. @ 15:16 CARLSBERG RIDGE

From the album:
"This graphic above all others illustrates exactly how important an
effect on a storm going ashore has. The cyclosis of a Cat 2 to TS (an
hydraulic jump of 4 places) takes place in a few hours.

It will be interesting to see what sort of earthquakes evolve with it.

Something in the region of Mag 4 to 4.5; two or three of them, at
least, I imagine.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...album=11238012

But where?"

On Mar 17, 6:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Mar 15, 12:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ml?id=11238012

2012/03/17

5.5 M. @ 17:00 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 M. @ 15:49 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 M. @ 15:16 CARLSBERG RIDGE

From the album:
"This graphic above all others illustrates exactly how important an
effect on a storm going ashore has. The cyclosis of a Cat 2 to TS (an
hydraulic jump of 4 places) takes place in a few hours.

It will be interesting to see what sort of earthquakes evolve with it.

Something in the region of Mag 4 to 4.5; two or three of them, at
least, I imagine.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...cture=14742819....

But where?"

5.5 2012/03/17 17:00:58 3.898 63.403 9.7 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 2012/03/17 15:49:17 3.738 63.452 10.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 2012/03/17 15:16:25 3.862 63.387 10.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE

Well I had no idea where but I am pretty certain there is a
relationship with the angle 80 degrees between them.

I haven't looked yet.

(I really am far too good for this place.)

On Mar 17, 6:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Mar 15, 12:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ml?id=11238012

2012/03/17

5.5 M. @ 17:00 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 M. @ 15:49 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 M. @ 15:16 CARLSBERG RIDGE

From the album:
"This graphic above all others illustrates exactly how important an
effect on a storm going ashore has. The cyclosis of a Cat 2 to TS (an
hydraulic jump of 4 places) takes place in a few hours.

It will be interesting to see what sort of earthquakes evolve with it.

Something in the region of Mag 4 to 4.5; two or three of them, at
least, I imagine.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...cture=14742819....

But where?"

19th
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

17th
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.5 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE

By the cricking of my neck
I be thinking:
WTF!

On Mar 19, 8:44*am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Mar 17, 6:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:









On Mar 15, 12:05*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ml?id=11238012

2012/03/17

5.5 M. @ 17:00 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 M. @ 15:49 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 M. @ 15:16 CARLSBERG RIDGE

From the album:
"This graphic above all others illustrates exactly how important an
effect on a storm going ashore has. The cyclosis of a Cat 2 to TS (an
hydraulic jump of 4 places) takes place in a few hours.

It will be interesting to see what sort of earthquakes evolve with it.

Something in the region of Mag 4 to 4.5; two or three of them, at
least, I imagine.

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...cture=14742819....

But where?"

19th
*5.0 * * MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
*5.0 * * HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
*5.0 * * NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

17th
*5.1 * * SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
*5.5 * * CARLSBERG RIDGE
*5.0 * * CARLSBERG RIDGE
*5.2 * * CARLSBERG RIDGE

By the cricking of my neck
I be thinking:
WTF!

Looking at the North Atlantic charts from the MetO these multi[ple
quakes will continue through the end of this spell which is on the
22nd March 2012.

However with an huge Low forming and breaking up whilst still on the
western side of rhe Ridge.

I am not able to guess where all these lesser quakes are bound.
It sure looks busy though:
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/al...ture=147835112

These are the last of the earthquakes according to this spell:

2012/03/22
5.0 VANUATU
4.3 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
4.2 OFF THE COAST OF OAXACA, MEXICO
2.7 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
3.5 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
2.7 WASHINGTON
3.4 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.6 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
4.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
4.1 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
2.7 PUERTO RICO REGION
2.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
4.4 CRETE, GREECE
5.2 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA

2012/03/21
4.6 TAIWAN
6.6 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
2.6 PUERTO RICO REGION
3.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.3 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
4.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO
4.4 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
2.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
3.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA
2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
2.9 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
4.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
2.7 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
4.6 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO
4.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.9 OAXACA, MEXICO
4.5 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
4.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
4.3 POTOSI, BOLIVIA


2012/03/20
4.6 SOUTHERN GREECE
4.3 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA
5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO
4.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
4.6 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.2 TONGA REGION
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
4.9 KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
4.8 OAXACA, MEXICO
4.7 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO
2.9 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO
7.4 OAXACA, MEXICO
6.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
4.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 VANUATU
3.6 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
4.6 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA
4.7 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
2.6 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII
4.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
4.9 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA
3.7 OFFSHORE OREGON
3.2 OFFSHORE OREGON
3.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
4.7 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
4.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
3.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.4 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
2.9 NEVADA
3.5 NEVADA
2.7 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII
3.4 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
2.5 NEVADA

2012/03/19
5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.8 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
4.4 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION
2.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
2.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2.6 SOUTHERN ALASKA
4.8 NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
3.2 PUERTO RICO REGION
4.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
4.8 SOLOMON ISLANDS
2.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
5.3 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2.9 OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
4.6 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
4.6 KURIL ISLANDS
3.6 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
3.2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
3.1 SOUTH OF ALASKA
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.1 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

2012/03/18
4.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
3.4 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
3.3 WASHINGTON
4.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
4.5 FIJI REGION
3.4 PUERTO RICO REGION
2.6 ALASKA PENINSULA
3.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
2.9 NEW MEXICO
2.9 PUERTO RICO REGION
4.8 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
4.6 ALASKA PENINSULA
2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
3.5 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
2.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
3.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
4.0 ALASKA PENINSULA
2.8 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
4.9 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
4.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
3.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.6 BANGLADESH
4.4 NORTHERN IRAN
4.6 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
4.7 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
2.5 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
4.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.6 SOUTH OF ALASKA

2012/03/17
3.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
3.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
4.5 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
2.8 PUERTO RICO REGION
4.6 SERAM, INDONESIA
2.5 CENTRAL ALASKA
5.5 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE
4.8 CARLSBERG RIDGE
4.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.8 MONA PASSAGE, PUERTO RICO
4.3 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND
4.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.4 LUZON, PHILIPPINES
4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.5 KURIL ISLANDS
2.6 SOUTH OF ALASKA
2.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
4.9 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS
3.4 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
4.6 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.8 BANDA SEA
4.4 BANDA SEA
3.8 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

2012/03/16
4.8 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
4.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
2.9 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION
4.9 VANUATU
4.9 SEA OF JAPAN
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
2.7 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
4.7 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA
2.8 WEST VIRGINIA
2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
4.8 EAST OF THE SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS
4.9 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
2.9 COLORADO
5.7 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES
3.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
4.9 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.5 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA
4.7 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
4.9 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2.9 PUERTO RICO REGION
4.9 VANUATU
2.5 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
3.6 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.4 KURIL ISLANDS
3.3 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

2012/03/15
4.9 FIJI REGION
2.5 SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
3.6 ALASKA PENINSULA
4.9 ROTA REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
2.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
5.1 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
4.6 NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
2.5 SOUTHERN ALASKA
4.5 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA
4.7 NORTH OF SVALBARD
4.3 NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
4.7 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
4.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

There appears to be one more in the mix according to:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

How did I do it?

The darkness of the Lows close to the Antarctic continent give the
severe quakes away.

They build up from wet weather from the previous spell running through
the lower latitudes of South America (mainly) Africa (nearly as much)
and Australia (depending on the season for cyclones nearby.)

These things come apart on there treks over the continents they leave.
To get through the Blocking Highs in the oceans off the shores where
they leave, they have to build up enough power to force the High over.

All the systems move in a clockwise direction looking down from ther
South Pole. If the power build up is great the pressure of the Low
drops so much that the High is forced from its place and sent under
the continent adjacent to it.

This High then goes on to try and assimilate with the nearest High in
the next ocean.

But of course it can not dso this, it has its own "personality"; as
does the other one.

But a Low in higher latitudes can make use of the oscillations these
Highs create, to break through them. It will thus be able to break
through almost perpendicular to the continent.

And it will generally arrive at the same place the dark Low has been
held by the oscillating Highs.

And this place is usually one of the Ice Shelves.

Antarctic Ice Shelves are aerodynamic funnels for the Lows that pass
them. They entice them in to their lairs and dispose of them like
spiders catching flies.

How does this occur?

Ice Shelves are plains at the feet of 3 mile high mountains which are
themselves covered in snow. The slope of Antarctica is thus a conic
section. It is hemispherical. The water in the Lows is dropped in the
glaciers and the now dry air become the Polar High.

Everything the winds that pass over all of the southern hemisphere end
up here. So does all the pollution they bring with them. (It is this
pollution that provides the nutriment for the algae that feeds krill.)

When the various dispersed weather patterns leave the souther
continents they build up behing the highs waiting for an opportunity
to continue.

As they build, they force the Highs over. The Highs are squeezed past
the south of the continents in a five day wave. And the Lows can edge
in at an angle. They may take a full circuit of the continent before
they are enticed to the dome.

The peninsular that runs towards South America tends to trap the Lows
and bring them recalcitrant ones closed in.

Meanwhile more Lows are coming down the pipe.

The isobars are pressed closer and closer together and take on the
signature of a severe earthquake.

When the deep low embeds on an ice shelf the whole system breaks awya
once more. Hurricane force winds are sent up the slopes and form a
standing wave above the top of the continent.

A series fo sever earthquakes follows.

On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 at 07:03:21, Weatherlawyer
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

These are the last of the earthquakes according to this spell:

How big does it have to be, to be called an earthquake, rather than
merely a tremor?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On Mar 22, 5:07*pm, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Thu, 22 Mar 2012 at 07:03:21, Weatherlawyer
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

These are the last of the earthquakes according to this spell:

How big does it have to be, to be called an earthquake, rather than
merely a tremor?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

A tremor is just another word for an earthquake.

Substantial earthquakes, ones that can be felt around the globe are
rated 4M. That's about the same delivered energy as a small atom bomb.
Of course there is substantially more energy in a quake as the energy
is also lost in ways that aere not measured.

When a series of storms combines south of the continents, if they can
feed through the anticyclones in the correct sequence, there is enough
energy to produce a Mag 7.

There is no real way to compare magnitudes but common practice has it
that well you probabnly know the rest it goes up logarithmically in so
many kilotons of TNT and all that crap.

Personally I more than suspect that a Mag 5 in a sequence of three
such as those off North Africa when Lua hit the continental shelf of
Australia, add up to more than 6M:

2012/03/17 roughly 4N. 63E.

5.5 M. @ 17:00 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.0 M. @ 15:49 CARLSBERG RIDGE
5.2 M. @ 15:16 CARLSBERG RIDGE
Some 60 degrees from the bay it broached at.
(80 degrees from Lake Ayer.)

Stuff still to mill over if you get the pun.

Thanks for asking a civil question. It's nice to know there are
sentients out there as well as spitscientists/spit.

Aum Selah.

Weatherlawyer wrote in news:888e1cff-1c86-4975-
:

Thanks for asking a civil question.

You reap what you sow.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?