A little consistency now that the anticyclonic conditions may re-
establish themselves after a messy and difficult breakdown. Nothing is
in any way sorted here and this morning's indications are that the
cold - even the easterly flow - may continue to affect the east of the
UK particularly.

This is why it is necessary to wait for the agreement and consistency
before committing to forecast at 10 days. The changes in the models
over the last 36 hours have been fascinating. I would have given the
chances of continuing colder conditions a low probability of achieving
outcome, but I could not see the chances of a mildening at 10 days as
being 80%+. Thus no forecast and comments such as "you pays your money
and you takes your chance". If you'd bet on a mildening, you'd be
worrying about your cash this morning!

There could be some gorgeous, calm, dry winter weather to come - but
it certainly doesn't look like a snow fest after the possible fun and
games this weekend.