If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


It's based on Paul Bartlett's work Keith.
Anyway the run is an outlier. To me November looks like starting wet and
mild and if it goes on that way a cold winter will be unlikely.
SST pattern for a cold winter is also weaker tonight but things may change
of course!

Will
--

On 24/10/2010 22:23, Will Hand wrote:

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


It's based on Paul Bartlett's work Keith.
Anyway the run is an outlier. To me November looks like starting wet and
mild and if it goes on that way a cold winter will be unlikely.
SST pattern for a cold winter is also weaker tonight but things may
change of course!

Will
--



Wasn't last November wet and mild?

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 24/10/2010 22:23, Will Hand wrote:

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"


It's based on Paul Bartlett's work Keith.
Anyway the run is an outlier. To me November looks like starting wet and
mild and if it goes on that way a cold winter will be unlikely.
SST pattern for a cold winter is also weaker tonight but things may
change of course!

Will
--



Wasn't last November wet and mild?

I think you are quite right Adam

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_...00/8402437.stm

Will,

You’ve mentioned a few times now that a cold November tends to be
followed by a cold winter, so I decided to look back at the CET
records since 1900, and here are my findings.

The average November CET from 1900-2009 inclusive is +6.6°C, with a
Standard Deviation of 1.3°C
The average Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) CET from 1900-2009 inclusive is
+4.2°C with a Standard Deviation of 1.2°c

Cold Nov = =+5.3°C
Mild Nov = =+7.9°C

Cold Winter = =+3.0°C
Mild Winter = =+5.4°C

Below is a list of Cold Novembers, and the following Winter
temperature.

NOV WIN
1901 4.8 Cold 1902 3.2 Average
1904 5.2 Cold 1905 4.2 Average
1905 4.9 Cold 1906 4.4 Average
1909 4.8 Cold 1910 4.2 Average
1910 3.2 Cold 1911 5.0 Average
1915 2.8 Cold 1916 5.5 Mild
1919 3.3 Cold 1920 5.6 Mild
1921 4.6 Cold 1922 4.9 Average
1923 3.3 Cold 1924 3.9 Average
1925 3.6 Cold 1926 4.7 Average
1937 5.1 Cold 1938 4.6 Average
1942 4.9 Cold 1943 5.9 Mild
1952 4.2 Cold 1953 3.5 Average
1965 4.5 Cold 1966 4.4 Average
1985 4.1 Cold 1986 2.9 Cold
1988 5.2 Cold 1989 6.5 Mild
1993 4.6 Cold 1994 4.7 Average

Below is a list of Mild Novembers, and the following Winter
temperature.

NOV WIN
1913 8.4 Mild 1914 5.2 Average
1938 9.4 Mild 1939 4.7 Average
1939 8.7 Mild 1940 1.5 Cold
1946 8.1 Mild 1947 1.1 Cold
1951 8.5 Mild 1952 3.9 Average
1953 8.5 Mild 1954 4.1 Average
1963 8.2 Mild 1964 3.5 Average
1978 8.5 Mild 1979 1.6 Cold
1982 8.0 Mild 1983 4.3 Average
1984 8.0 Mild 1985 2.7 Cold
1994 10.1 Mild 1995 5.9 Mild
1997 8.4 Mild 1998 6.1 Mild
1999 7.9 Mild 2000 5.4 Mild
2002 8.5 Mild 2003 4.7 Average
2003 8.1 Mild 2004 5.1 Average
2006 8.1 Mild 2007 6.4 Average
2009 8.7 Mild 2010 2.4 Cold

Below is a list of Cold Winters, and the preceding November
temperature.

NOV WIN
1916 6.8 Average 1917 1.5 Cold
1928 7.6 Average 1929 1.7 Cold
1939 8.7 Mild 1940 1.5 Cold
1940 6.9 Average 1941 2.6 Cold
1941 6.6 Average 1942 2.2 Cold
1946 8.1 Mild 1947 1.1 Cold
1950 5.7 Average 1951 2.9 Cold
1955 7.0 Average 1956 2.9 Cold
1962 5.5 Average 1963 (0.3) Cold
1978 8.5 Mild 1979 1.6 Cold
1981 7.8 Average 1982 2.6 Cold
1984 8.0 Mild 1985 2.7 Cold
1985 4.1 Cold 1986 2.9 Cold
2009 8.7 Mild 2010 2.4 Cold

Below is a list of Mild Winters, and the preceding November
temperature.

NOV WIN
1915 2.8 Cold 1916 5.5 Mild
1919 3.3 Cold 1920 5.6 Mild
1920 6.8 Average 1921 5.4 Mild
1922 5.9 Average 1923 5.7 Mild
1924 7.1 Average 1925 5.8 Mild
1934 6.1 Average 1935 6.1 Mild
1942 4.9 Cold 1943 5.9 Mild
1948 7.3 Average 1949 5.6 Mild
1956 6.0 Average 1957 5.5 Mild
1973 6.0 Average 1974 5.4 Mild
1974 6.8 Average 1975 6.4 Mild
1988 5.2 Cold 1989 6.5 Mild
1989 6.2 Average 1990 6.2 Mild
1994 10.1 Mild 1995 5.9 Mild
1997 8.4 Mild 1998 6.1 Mild
1998 6.2 Average 1999 5.4 Mild
1999 7.9 Mild 2000 5.4 Mild
2006 8.1 Mild 2007 6.4 Mild
2007 7.3 Average 2008 5.6 Mild


Conclusion, a cold November is more likely to be followed by an
average or mild winter, whereas a mild November is more likely to be
followed by an average or cold winter.

Following on from the CET analysis I did yesterday, I have now done
another anaysis based on Wet Novembers in the South West using the
data series available from the Met Office since 1931.

Mean November Railfall = 118.30 mm
Standard Deviation = 53.18 mm
Wet November = 171.47 mm

Year MM WIN CET °C
1931 193.88 4.8 Avg Mild
1935 172.50 3.0 Cold
1939 217.02 1.5 Cold
1940 228.77 2.6 Cold
1944 183.82 3.7 Avg Cool
1946 179.70 1.1 Cold
1950 173.01 2.9 Cold
1951 186.63 3.9 Avg Cool
1954 199.80 3.5 Avg Cool
1960 181.50 4.9 Avg Mild
1963 205.76 3.5 Avg Cool
1970 198.71 4.4 Avg Mild
1984 185.13 2.7 Cold
1992 187.84 4.7 Avg Mild
1997 185.59 6.1 Mild
2000 211.07 4.5 Avg Mild
2002 229.67 4.7 Avg Mild
2009 221.36 2.4 Cold

In article
,
Teignmouth writes:
Following on from the CET analysis I did yesterday, I have now done
another anaysis based on Wet Novembers in the South West using the
data series available from the Met Office since 1931.

Mean November Railfall = 118.30 mm
Standard Deviation = 53.18 mm
Wet November = 171.47 mm

Year MM WIN CET °C
1931 193.88 4.8 Avg Mild
1935 172.50 3.0 Cold
1939 217.02 1.5 Cold
1940 228.77 2.6 Cold
1944 183.82 3.7 Avg Cool
1946 179.70 1.1 Cold
1950 173.01 2.9 Cold
1951 186.63 3.9 Avg Cool
1954 199.80 3.5 Avg Cool
1960 181.50 4.9 Avg Mild
1963 205.76 3.5 Avg Cool
1970 198.71 4.4 Avg Mild
1984 185.13 2.7 Cold
1992 187.84 4.7 Avg Mild
1997 185.59 6.1 Mild
2000 211.07 4.5 Avg Mild
2002 229.67 4.7 Avg Mild
2009 221.36 2.4 Cold

Very interesting. It suggests that wet Novembers used to be more likely
to lead to cold winters, but that this is no longer the case. I suppose
that might be due to the fact that cold winters are now rarer than they
used to be (though the 1030s was a period of generally mild winters, and
wet Novembers seem to have done an excellent job of predicting the few
cold ones).
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

In article
,
Teignmouth writes:
Following on from the CET analysis I did yesterday, I have now done
another anaysis based on Wet Novembers in the South West using the
data series available from the Met Office since 1931.
snip

In Lionel P Smith's "Seasonable Weather", published in 1968, he looked
at a large number of traditional weather sayings. Among them was "a wet
autumn indicates a cold and early winter". For Kew over the period
1850-1949, he found that 22 very wet autumns led to 4 warm and 18 cold
winters, where he defined a "cold" winter as one where the mean
temperature of the coldest month was below 38.0F (giving 48 warm and 52
cold winters over the 100 years). Of these, 3 winters were very warm
(mean temp. of coldest month above 40.4F) and 7 very cold (below 35.6F).

After 50 wet autumns, there were 19 warm and 31 cold winters, including
6 very warm and 15 very cold.

He also looked at Stonyhurst and Edinburgh, where the tendency for wet
autumns to be followed by cold winters was not quite so striking. Of
course, whether the tendency still applies today is another matter.
--
John Hall
"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
will hardly mind anything else."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

The previous run GFS was showing a very large high with fog and frost for
bonfire night, it'll be different again on the 18z no doubt.

On Oct 24, 10:14*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
If GFS 12z run is to be believed November could be heading to be cold
and wet. Interesting how some on here believe this to be a precursor
to a cold winter, I was always of the belief a mild or foggy autumn
Oct/Nov hinted such things.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Nov 1st is Atlantic weather; mild and possibly wet for me Keith. Not
enough consistency or agreement for anything further just yet.