http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-1/

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a
large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate
science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term
climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene
period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return
to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient
plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice
Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by
intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows
a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together
known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the
tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the
earth's orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the
Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth's 'wobble', which
gradually rotates the direction of the earth's axis over a period of 26,000
years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three
astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation
which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age
maximums and warm interglacials.

Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first
presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was
developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the
theory was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician
Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal
"Science" published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and
Nicholas Shackleton entitled "Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of
the Ice Ages," which described the correlation which the trio of
scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean
sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles.
Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant
theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence
the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and
in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own
climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the
Milankovich cycles, ". must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only
to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to
anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to
orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic
oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate
that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive
Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other
scientists began promoting the theory that 'greenhouse gasses' such as
carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to
catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of 'anthropogenic
global warming' (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the
academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global
movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the
worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is
the famous 'hockey stick' graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006
film "An Inconvenient Truth." The 'hockey stick' graph shows an acute upward
spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued
through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted
when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern
Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now
appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably
equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold
temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence
from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence
from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true
understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us
with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global
temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and
interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal "Nature" published the results of data derived
from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia 's Vostok station in
Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of
global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases,
and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing
through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vo...core-petit.png shows that the
Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic
pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on
an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes
in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight
hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or
cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing
atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the
natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global
temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm
water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2,
when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks,
wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their 'fizz',
which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is
currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the
oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the
atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in
the earth's temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue
to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth's current
Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the
coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the
increased chilling of the world's oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose
and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and
maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that
natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by
global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they
are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global
temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are
again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the
earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a
few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in
its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the
effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow
span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the 'big picture' of
long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice
cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are
on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that
severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While
concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to
distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat
of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of
the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

Well that should please the cold weather folks!

Robbie (Pleased to have missed the ice and cold)

"Vipera berus" wrote in message
...
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-1/

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a
large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate
science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of
long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long
Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth
will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of
ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic
pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years,
separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000
years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also
shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are
together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles
include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the
shape of the earth's orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years;
and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth's 'wobble',
which gradually rotates the direction of the earth's axis over a period of
26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation,
these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar
radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of
cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.

Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first
presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was
developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the
theory was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician
Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal
"Science" published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and
Nicholas Shackleton entitled "Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker
of the Ice Ages," which described the correlation which the trio of
scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean
sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles.
Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant
theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and
hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of
climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own
climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the
Milankovich cycles, ". must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply
only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to
anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked
to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic
oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results
indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards
extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other
scientists began promoting the theory that 'greenhouse gasses' such as
carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to
catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of 'anthropogenic
global warming' (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the
academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global
movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the
worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory
is the famous 'hockey stick' graph which was presented by Al Gore in his
2006 film "An Inconvenient Truth." The 'hockey stick' graph shows an acute
upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and
continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was
interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to
the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since
2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of
2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow
depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence
from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence
from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true
understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us
with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global
temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and
interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal "Nature" published the results of data derived
from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia 's Vostok station in
Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of
global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse
gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and
continuing through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vo...core-petit.png shows that the
Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic
pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat
on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that
changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by
about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures
precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words,
increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise;
instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing
global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global
temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than
warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or
CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft
drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their
'fizz', which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth
is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the
oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the
atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes
in the earth's temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels
continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the
earth's current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight
hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to
drop in response to the increased chilling of the world's oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly
rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age
minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand
years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global
temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately
the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global
temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are
again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the
earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a
few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in
its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the
effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow
span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the 'big picture'
of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice
cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we
are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that
severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While
concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues
to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real
threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large
parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly
ignored.

Ridge Runner wrote:
Well that should please the cold weather folks!

Robbie (Pleased to have missed the ice and cold)

http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-1/


I read it and thought "Bit of a cat to put amongst the u.s.w. pigeons!"

Mind you... that graph looks pretty convincing to me, published in Nature
too so it's been quite extensively peer reviewed.

Vb

I hadn’t thought that any of this is new. In the middle of the last
century, the received wisdom was planet Earth is probably heading for
an Ice Age. Subsequently, the significance of increasing CO2 being
better understood – well it was thought to be better understood.

However, while increased CO2 is a measured fact (whether man-induced
or part of a natural cycle) the jury is seemingly still out as to what
that will mean. The consensus is that warming will be the result but
that is by no means proven. If that is that is indeed the case, in
the short term, warming could well be occur before CO2 levels drop
later and an Ice Age has a chance to kick in.

Jack

On 12 Jan, 15:31, "Vipera berus" wrote:
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-1/

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a
large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate
science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term
climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene
period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return
to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

To be honest, this is pretty well exactly what we teach at A level
Geography & Geology, putting AGW into the context of climate change
over millions of years.

However, it must be remembered that the human life cycle is just
decades long, and so those alive today are *only* concerned with the
next century at the most, so the impact of GW (however caused) *is*
still an issue to them, their children and grandchildren.Joe public
isn't interested in a thousand years time let alone 10,000 years!

It's a pity we won't be around, either as individuals, or as a
species, to witness the next ice advance in Europe.

Steve J