You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week
threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once
again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see
whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next
week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has
once again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will
see whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will
--

Indeed, Will. Something to watch with more than a little interest. Hope
you're able to provide more insight as runs come through.

Joe

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next
week
threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once
again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see
whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will

EC's 12Z operational output was towards the lower end of the EPS plume after
day 7 but has pretty good support.
Could see a return of the Pembrokeshire dangler..

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
Will

EC's 12Z operational output was towards the lower end of the EPS plume
after
day 7 but has pretty good support.
Could see a return of the Pembrokeshire dangler..

Jon.

Sounds a bit rude, Jon. This dangler chap doesn't have the anatomy of a
brass monkey per chance?

This upcoming spells is every bit as interesting a weather-type as what has
gone before and probably more unpredictable in the short term.

Joe

On 11 Jan, 20:44, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next
week
threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once
again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see
whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will

EC's 12Z operational output was towards the lower end of the EPS plume after
day 7 but has pretty good support.
Could see a return of the Pembrokeshire dangler..

Jon.

Well, if we do, and it dangles over me, I will hold you personally
responsible as you invented it! Several of my wettest winter days have
due to being dangled on. It's amazing just how much rain (and
occasionally thunder) it can give in such a narrow strip.

Graham
Penzance

Will Hand wrote:
You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week
threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once
again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see
whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will

Sticking your neck out here Will, baring in mind it's over 6 days away
and this wasn't really apparent on the 00z ECMWF model. My feeling is on
the 00z run it would have been 'dumbed' down, but I hope you're right ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday.
Today's (11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW
early next week threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier
but that model has once again been very consistent and does have
support from GFS. We will see whether UKMO will want the same setup
in a day or two. Bye for now!

Will

Sticking your neck out here Will, baring in mind it's over 6 days away
and this wasn't really apparent on the 00z ECMWF model. My feeling is
on the 00z run it would have been 'dumbed' down, but I hope you're
right ;-)

This *is* ECMWF we are talking about Keith. It has performed very well so
far this winter.
Models also like mobility.

Will
--

On Jan 11, 8:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
You know I have talked about the jet slamming into UK next Sunday. Today's
(11th) 12Z ECMWF brings deep cold air across all UK from NW early next week
threatening widespread snow. It may be an outlier but that model has once
again been very consistent and does have support from GFS. We will see
whether UKMO will want the same setup in a day or two.

Bye for now!

Will
--

Hope for the dream combination (for January, but certainly not for
most of the year!) of Atlantic lows *and* cold, that I mentioned in an
earlier message? Let's hope so!

Nick

EC's 12Z operational output was towards the lower end of the EPS
plume after
day 7 but has pretty good support.
Could see a return of the Pembrokeshire dangler..


.... Someone could write a useful segment in the FAQ to describe this
phenomenon - we've got the 'Bartlett High' after all! Someone's bound
to ask what the "Pembrokeshire dangler" is.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On 12 Jan, 08:17, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
EC's 12Z operational output was towards the lower end of the EPS
plume after
day 7 but has pretty good support.
Could see a return of the Pembrokeshire dangler..

... Someone could write a useful segment in the FAQ to describe this
phenomenon - we've got the 'Bartlett High' after all! Someone's bound
to ask what the "Pembrokeshire dangler" is.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Yes, it often amazes me what a narrow intense band it is. Often
described in forecasts as a 'Line of showers' , but it's often
anything but showers. It rains, often heavily, for hours on end.

The last marked occasion was occasion was 14th December, when I had
around 23mm of rain/sleet, whilst the just 10 miles to the east it was
dry much of the day, I could often see blue sky through the rain to
the east. That occasion was atypical, as the feature was quite weak
leaving Pembroke, but intensified considerably when the flow was
disrupted by the Land's End peninsula.

The wind direction is critical, virtually due north for here. A slight
backing and the feature moves east towards Devon and weakens steadily
as it does so, a slight veer and Scilly gets a real pasting.

Graham
Penzance