Probably one for Graham P Davis, but I was wondering what the SST
anomalies looked like at this time in 1962 and also what was the El Nino
/ La Nina doing that year? A number of noted similarities in the
sypnotics to that year and I was interested to see how far the
comparison goes.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS...12.22.2008.gif

I see we also still have that tongue of cold SST's to the north, this
could amplify any northerly i the coming weeks.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

Of course those models are still 7 days away and one would be foolish to
assume a snowfall was in the bag, but maybe, just maybe our turn has
come ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Of course those models are still 7 days away and one would be foolish
to assume a snowfall was in the bag, but maybe, just maybe our turn has
come ;-)

Can anyone remember the last heavy widespread snowfall to hit the whole
of the UK?
--
Graham

It was 18-20 March 1987 in South Devon.

Keith (Southend) wrote:

Probably one for Graham P Davis, but I was wondering what the SST
anomalies looked like at this time in 1962 and also what was the El Nino
/ La Nina doing that year? A number of noted similarities in the
sypnotics to that year and I was interested to see how far the
comparison goes.

A study of the 62-3 winter highlighted the cold pool in the SST anomalies
off the Grand Banks as being one of the contributors to that winter. The
situation now is quite different, with warmth centred just NE of the area.
The current SST pattern looks a little blocked but the high anomaly would
be in mid-Atlantic rather than over Iceland as occurred in 62-3.


http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SS...12.22.2008.gif

I see we also still have that tongue of cold SST's to the north, this
could amplify any northerly i the coming weeks.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

I'm not convinced that cold tongue is any colder than normal. There is a
problem with the normals used by the NOAA site shown by the fact that the
cold area NE of Iceland is there every winter. The idea they had of using
only satellite data for the normals was a good one but as they've now more
data since the end of the normal period than used in it, they ought to
update them.


Of course those models are still 7 days away and one would be foolish to
assume a snowfall was in the bag, but maybe, just maybe our turn has
come ;-)


I doubt it.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

On 24 Dec, 07:41, Graham P Davis wrote:
A study of the 62-3 winter highlighted the cold pool in the SST anomalies
off the Grand Banks as being one of the contributors to that winter. The
situation now is quite different, with warmth centred just NE of the area..
The current SST pattern looks a little blocked but the high anomaly would
be in mid-Atlantic rather than over Iceland as occurred in 62-3.
I'm not convinced that cold tongue is any colder than normal. There is a
problem with the normals used by the NOAA site shown by the fact that the
cold area NE of Iceland is there every winter. The idea they had of using
only satellite data for the normals was a good one but as they've now more
data since the end of the normal period than used in it, they ought to
update them.

Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy

Thanks Graham for giving me a reality fix :-(
We will just have to wait and see how it all pans out I guess.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

On Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:19:58 -0800 (PST), "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in


A study of the 62-3 winter highlighted the cold pool in the SST anomalies
off the Grand Banks as being one of the contributors to that winter. The
situation now is quite different, with warmth centred just NE of the area.
The current SST pattern looks a little blocked but the high anomaly would
be in mid-Atlantic rather than over Iceland as occurred in 62-3.
I'm not convinced that cold tongue is any colder than normal. There is a
problem with the normals used by the NOAA site shown by the fact that the
cold area NE of Iceland is there every winter. The idea they had of using
only satellite data for the normals was a good one but as they've now more
data since the end of the normal period than used in it, they ought to
update them.

Thanks Graham for giving me a reality fix :-(
We will just have to wait and see how it all pans out I guess.

Despite Graham's reservations about the SST similarities with 1962/63, or
lack of, I'm fascinated by the similarity between the current and forecast
synoptic setup, particularly the retrogression likely next week. The first
major snow then followed the high moving west to the Greenland/Iceland
region

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 24/12/2008 08:33:36 GMT

In article ,
Graham writes:
Can anyone remember the last heavy widespread snowfall to hit the whole
of the UK?

I think that such things have always been rare. In a northerly,
sheltered parts of the south will usually miss out, and in an easterly
western Scotland will often be dry.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)