So there's another 'cold-spell' band wagon rolling and this one is being
mooted as the one that Will really meant in his recent forecast that he
didn't get wrong anyway!

Poor old Will, if this cold spell fails to come off he'll be sidled with
that one as well.

As for someone just posting that they'd seen the Metcheque site and that
it's predicting mild weather for the next ten to fourteen days must mean
there is a definite chance of this cold spell happening.

Now some of these forecasting MD's claim to use 'pattern matching'. Well I'm
obliged to say I've seen their frocks and none of them really match - well
not with their choice off handbag anyway. Stick with plaid.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
So there's another 'cold-spell' band wagon rolling and this one is being
mooted as the one that Will really meant in his recent forecast that he
didn't get wrong anyway!

You mean the one he predicted a 70% chance of no major cold
spell ocurring?

Poor old Will, if this cold spell fails to come off he'll be sidled with
that one as well.


You cannot get any individual probabilistic forecast 'right' or 'wrong'.
Only the performance over a number of forecasts may be assessed.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

In article ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:
So there's another 'cold-spell' band wagon rolling and this one is being
mooted as the one that Will really meant in his recent forecast that he
didn't get wrong anyway!

Poor old Will, if this cold spell fails to come off he'll be sidled with
that one as well.
snip

He shouldn't be. He only rated it as a 30% chance. I'm impressed that he
managed to identify it several days before the models seem to have
picked up on the possibility.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

Noticed that even Paul Bartlett has mentioned the possibility of it
turning very cold at the end of the month on his Rutnet site. He
doesn't usually bother when the odds are that low...

Felly sgrifennodd John Hall :
He shouldn't be. He only rated it as a 30% chance. I'm impressed that he
managed to identify it several days before the models seem to have
picked up on the possibility.

Will was right. That is clear now to everyone. Whether it comes off or not,
he spotted it first and was the first to say it might happen. Now it's
clear that it might happen.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk