Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0552,
4 Jan 06.

The models still show the UK as the battleground between mild Atlantic air
and Continental chill this weekend. It's now looking likely that a trough
will push in from the Atlantic by the beginning of next week, although it
won't move across the UK especially quickly. Beyond that the operational GFS
restores an easterly flow, although that isn't supported by the ensembles
which suggest a somewhat more mobile outlook. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A weak ridge covers the UK, leading to easterlies across much of England and
southerlies elsewhere. Winds become SSW'lies and southerlies at T+144 as a
deep low to the NW brings strong winds across Northern Ireland and Scotland.
By T+168 a secondary low forms to the west with strong to gale force
SSW'lies across the UK.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the SW of Iceland, with high presure over the Baltic
States. The UK is mainly affected by SSW'lies and southerlies from the low
to the NW, but winds are light over much of England and Wales. A trough
pushes eastwards over the UK at T+144, leading to westerlies and SW'lies.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
A large high covers the Baltic and a ridge from the high leads to easterlies
and SE'lies over England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are southerlies ahead of
a trough to the west. The trough moves over Ireland at T+144 with freshening
southerlies and SSW'lies for the UK. By T+168 the trough moves very slowly
eastwards and declines markedly, with southerlies and SSW'lies persisting
over the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian model brings southerlies and SSE'lies over the UK, with a
trough over England and Wales. Southerlies continue at T+144 as the trough
stalls over the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...030000_120.gif
DWD shows a trough west of Ireland and southerlies over the UK. The winds
become SW'lies at T+144 as the trough moves eastwards.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows anticyclonic SE'lies and southerlies with a large
high over Latvia. The winds become SSE'lies at T+144 as a trough approaches
from the west.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
The UK lies under southerlies, again with a trough to the west.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run also shows southerlies for all with a low to the west.

In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
snip
Beyond that the operational GFS
restores an easterly flow, although that isn't supported by the ensembles
which suggest a somewhat more mobile outlook.

I think that the GFS ensemble consists of 10 runs, doesn't it (including
the operational and the "control" runs)? Assuming for the sake of
argument that I'm right, then I wonder how often the operational run is
the "best" of the ten. It should be at least one in ten, but it ought to
be a bit higher than that since its "unperturbed" data is theoretically
the best. But how much higher than 10%? Would it perform the best on 11%
of occasions? On 15%? On 20%? I'd be surprised if it was much more than
20%. I imagine that those responsible for the GFS must collect
statistics on this, but I don't suppose that they are made public.

Of course, if the operational run shows one thing, and all the other
nine runs are united in showing something else, then the chance that the
operational run is right is likely to be considerably less than 10%. But
that should be rare.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)