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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Sunday. Issued 0552,
4 Jan 06. The models still show the UK as the battleground between mild Atlantic air and Continental chill this weekend. It's now looking likely that a trough will push in from the Atlantic by the beginning of next week, although it won't move across the UK especially quickly. Beyond that the operational GFS restores an easterly flow, although that isn't supported by the ensembles which suggest a somewhat more mobile outlook. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif A weak ridge covers the UK, leading to easterlies across much of England and southerlies elsewhere. Winds become SSW'lies and southerlies at T+144 as a deep low to the NW brings strong winds across Northern Ireland and Scotland. By T+168 a secondary low forms to the west with strong to gale force SSW'lies across the UK. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif A deep low lies to the SW of Iceland, with high presure over the Baltic States. The UK is mainly affected by SSW'lies and southerlies from the low to the NW, but winds are light over much of England and Wales. A trough pushes eastwards over the UK at T+144, leading to westerlies and SW'lies. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png A large high covers the Baltic and a ridge from the high leads to easterlies and SE'lies over England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are southerlies ahead of a trough to the west. The trough moves over Ireland at T+144 with freshening southerlies and SSW'lies for the UK. By T+168 the trough moves very slowly eastwards and declines markedly, with southerlies and SSW'lies persisting over the UK. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian model brings southerlies and SSE'lies over the UK, with a trough over England and Wales. Southerlies continue at T+144 as the trough stalls over the UK. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...030000_120.gif DWD shows a trough west of Ireland and southerlies over the UK. The winds become SW'lies at T+144 as the trough moves eastwards. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows anticyclonic SE'lies and southerlies with a large high over Latvia. The winds become SSE'lies at T+144 as a trough approaches from the west. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif The UK lies under southerlies, again with a trough to the west. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run also shows southerlies for all with a low to the west. |
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