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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0558, 3 Jan 06. The models continue to show the UK close to the battleground between Continental easterlies and Atlantic SW'lies. Northern and western areas are most at risk of seeing an Atlantic influence, but none of the runs are keen to bring Atlantic air across the rest of the UK. Elsewhere winds will feed chilly air in from the Continent, possibly with some light drizzle or even snow flurries if the surface layer is cold enough. Temperatures are unlikely to be especially low as the shape of the block to the NE deflects the coldest air away from the UK. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure is centred over the Baltic with a ridge across the UK. Winds are southerlies for Scotland and Northern Ireland with ENE'lies elsewhere. Winds become SE'lies and ESE'lies at T+144 as a trough weakens to the west, followed by southerlies and SW'lies as a weak ridge crosses England at T+168. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif SE'lies and SSE'lies cover the UK, with an elongated low to the west and high pressure over the Baltic States. The SSE'lies persist at T+144 as low pressure deepens to the west. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png Easterlies cover England and Wales, with SE'lies and southerlies elsewhere. A ridge builds over the UK at T+144, leading to light winds for all. SW'lies associated with complex low pressure near Iceland cover Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland at T+168 but elsewhere winds remain light easterlies. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian model brings ESE'lies and SW'lies over the UK due to a large anticyclone to the NE. There's little change at T+144. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...030000_120.gif DWD shows the UK between a high to the ENE and a low to the WSW, with SE'lies for most. By T+144 winds become light SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland, under the influence of a low to the NW. Elsewhere winds are SE'lies or SSE'lies. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows an easterly flow over England and Wales with southerlies or SE'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland, all due to a large high over Scandinavia. The winds become SE'lies for all at T+144 as low pressure approaches from the west. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif The UK lies under southerlies and SSE'lies, with a trough to the west and a high to the NE. There's little change at T+144. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run also shows southerlies for all with a low to the west. |
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