Dear All

I'm sure most will pick up on this as the day goes along but Hurricane
Wilma's central pressure has dropped like the proverbial stone in the
last few hours, I'm sure it must be near record-breaking intensification
rates.

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

According to the NHC 07Z update, it matches the 1935 Labor Day hurricane
pressure. If my mind serves me correctly, only Gilbert ever got lower in
its history at 888mb.

Richard

Richard Dixon wrote in news:3rmb82Fkap1vU1
@individual.net:

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

A bit more digging around and the Hurricane Research Division FAQ
indicates:

"In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24
hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s
(110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period."

Compare Wilma's 970-892mb in 10 hours (7.8mb/hr) with Gilbert's 960mb to
888mb in 24 hours (3mb/hr) and seemingly we've got a record
intensification rate if I've got my maths right.

Regards
Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
Richard Dixon wrote in news:3rmb82Fkap1vU1
@individual.net:

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

A bit more digging around and the Hurricane Research Division FAQ
indicates:

"In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24
hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s
(110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period."

Compare Wilma's 970-892mb in 10 hours (7.8mb/hr) with Gilbert's 960mb to
888mb in 24 hours (3mb/hr) and seemingly we've got a record
intensification rate if I've got my maths right.

If that's correct it's pretty scary - could be looking at record low. Has it
been a linear drop ?
t

In article ,
Richard Dixon writes:
I'm sure most will pick up on this as the day goes along but Hurricane
Wilma's central pressure has dropped like the proverbial stone in the
last few hours, I'm sure it must be near record-breaking intensification
rates.

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

Since the date appears to be wrong, can we believe the rest of it? Or is
this actually a forecast rather than what has already occurred?
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

Latest update:

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
....AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT

John Hall wrote in
:

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

Since the date appears to be wrong, can we believe the rest of it? Or is
this actually a forecast rather than what has already occurred?

Sorry - that was my tabulation above, I'm a day ahead of myself!

Richard

A 44mb drop in 2hrs - thats incredible !

Couldn't believe it was already a cat 5 when I checked this morning.


Tony Cummins wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
Richard Dixon wrote in news:3rmb82Fkap1vU1
@individual.net:

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

A bit more digging around and the Hurricane Research Division FAQ
indicates:

"In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24
hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s
(110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period."

Compare Wilma's 970-892mb in 10 hours (7.8mb/hr) with Gilbert's 960mb to
888mb in 24 hours (3mb/hr) and seemingly we've got a record
intensification rate if I've got my maths right.

If that's correct it's pretty scary - could be looking at record low. Has it
been a linear drop ?
t

In article , Richard Dixon writes:


I'm sure most will pick up on this as the day goes along but Hurricane
Wilma's central pressure has dropped like the proverbial stone in the
last few hours, I'm sure it must be near record-breaking intensification
rates.

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

According to the NHC 07Z update, it matches the 1935 Labor Day hurricane
pressure. If my mind serves me correctly, only Gilbert ever got lower in
its history at 888mb.

Aren't they just FORECAST figures?

It is still the 19th October, where I am.


Cheers,

keith



---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...

Apologies to all - I was a day ahead - these are values from the NHC
analyses issued today.

21Z/18th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/19th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/19th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/19th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/19th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/19th - 892mb - Cat 5
09Z/19th - 884mb - Cat 5

So - 86mb in 12 hours!

Richard

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article , Richard Dixon
writes:


I'm sure most will pick up on this as the day goes along but Hurricane
Wilma's central pressure has dropped like the proverbial stone in the
last few hours, I'm sure it must be near record-breaking intensification
rates.

21Z/19th - 970mb - Cat 1
00Z/20th - 954mb - Cat 2
03Z/20th - 945mb - Cat 2
05Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
06Z/20th - 901mb - Cat 4
07Z/20th - 892mb - Cat 5

According to the NHC 07Z update, it matches the 1935 Labor Day hurricane
pressure. If my mind serves me correctly, only Gilbert ever got lower in
its history at 888mb.

Aren't they just FORECAST figures?

It is still the 19th October, where I am.


Cheers,

keith


These are actual recorded pressures.
Its now dropped to 884MB!, lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin!

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.