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May was 11th warmest on the 129-year NASA global data record.
Even though May of this year is 11th warmest, it still is above the 129-year trend line. In the long term therefore, global mean surface temperatures continue an accelerated rise. Lately, fossil fools fondly repeat a lie about global warming slowing down. "Global warming ended in 1998," they say. The truth is published here every month in this section of these reports: The month of May in the year 2008, is linearly projected to be 14.309, yet it was 14.36. - above trend line Using the line of regression, the temperature is projected. If global warming reversed, the actual measured temperatures would have to fall below the line of regression temperature, and do so for a year or more. So far this has not happened, not for even two months in a row. Measured temperatures which are nearly always above projected temperatures mean that the temperature rise is accelerating. This is simple geometry. Each above the line measured global temperature raises the slope of the regression line when that new point joins the data. This pattern is now 5 decades old. Please see: http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Slope1952-2007.jpg Clearly therefore, the fossil fools lie, and global mean surface temperatures continue to rise. These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt They represent the results of tens of millions of readings taken at thousands of land stations and ships around the globe over the last 129 years. Yes, the land data are corrected for the urban heat island effect. The sea data do not need to be. There are few urban centers in the sea. The last 128 yearly means of these data are graphed at: http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Glob...ean%20Temp.jpg The Mean May temperature over the last 129 years is 13.962 C. The Variance is 0.06269. The Standard Deviation is 0.2504. Rxy 0.806223 Rxy^2 0.649996 TEMP = 13.609654 + (0.005421 * (YEAR-1879)) Degrees of Freedom = 127 F = 235.853086 Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately 0.999999999999999999999999999999 (30 nines), which is darn close to 100%! The month of May in the year 2008, is linearly projected to be 14.309, yet it was 14.36. - above trend line The sum of the residuals is 15.342221 Exponential least squares fit: TEMP = 13.613209 * e^(.0003868 * (YEAR-1879)) The sum of the residuals is 15.297205 Rank of the months of May Year Temp C Anomaly Z score 1998 14.61 0.648 2.59 2007 14.56 0.598 2.39 2002 14.56 0.598 2.39 2005 14.55 0.588 2.35 2003 14.51 0.548 2.19 2001 14.51 0.548 2.19 2006 14.42 0.458 1.83 2004 14.37 0.408 1.63 1990 14.37 0.408 1.63 1988 14.37 0.408 1.63 2008 14.36 0.398 1.59 -- 1997 14.32 0.358 1.43 1991 14.30 0.338 1.35 MEAN 13.962 0.000 0.00 1894 13.67 -0.292 -1.17 1910 13.66 -0.302 -1.21 1903 13.66 -0.302 -1.21 1898 13.66 -0.302 -1.21 1893 13.64 -0.322 -1.29 1885 13.64 -0.322 -1.29 1909 13.61 -0.352 -1.41 1904 13.61 -0.352 -1.41 1913 13.60 -0.362 -1.45 1911 13.60 -0.362 -1.45 1918 13.56 -0.402 -1.61 1890 13.56 -0.402 -1.61 1907 13.51 -0.452 -1.81 1917 13.46 -0.502 -2.00 The most recent 171 continuous months, or 14 years and 3 months, on this GLB.Ts+dSST.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980 data set norm of 14 C. There are 1541 months of data on this data set: -- 662 of them are at or above the norm. -- 879 of them are below the norm. This run of 171 months above the norm is the result of a warming world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years, otherwise expect it to continue. |
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