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May was 3-way tied for 3RD warmest on NASA's 128-year record!
"The sustained rate of increase in radiative forcing from CO2, CH4, N2O over the past 40 years is larger than at any time during at least the past 2000 years." -- IPCC WG1 AR4 TS.6.1 Robust Findings Meanwhile, global mean surface temperatures also continue to rise. These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ta...LB.Ts+dSST.txt They represent the results of tens of millions of readings taken at thousands of land stations and ships around the globe over the last 128 years. Yes, the land data are corrected for the urban heat island effect. The sea data do not need to be. There are few urban centers in the sea. The last 127 yearly means of these data are graphed at: http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/Glob...ean%20Temp.jpg The Mean May temperature over the last 128 years is 13.958 C. The Variance is 0.06158. The Standard Deviation is 0.2482. Rxy 0.80086 Rxy^2 0.64137 TEMP = 13.611355 + (0.005379 * (YEAR-1879)) Degrees of Freedom = 126 F = 225.335257 Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately 0.99999999999999999999999999999 (29 nines), which is darn close to 100%! The month of May in the year 2007, is linearly projected to be 14.300, yet it was 14.51. -- Above projected The sum of the residuals is 15.30436 Exponential least squares fit: TEMP = 13.61482 * e^(.0003838 * (YEAR-1879)) The sum of the residuals is 15.26074 Rank of the months of May Year Temp C Anomaly Z score 1998 14.61 0.652 2.63 2002 14.57 0.612 2.47 2005 14.55 0.592 2.38 2007 14.51 0.552 2.22 -- 2003 14.51 0.552 2.22 2001 14.51 0.552 2.22 2006 14.43 0.472 1.90 2004 14.37 0.412 1.66 1990 14.37 0.412 1.66 1988 14.37 0.412 1.66 1997 14.32 0.362 1.46 1983 14.30 0.342 1.38 1984 14.30 0.342 1.38 MEAN 13.958 0.000 0.00 1923 13.67 -0.288 -1.16 1898 13.66 -0.298 -1.20 1903 13.66 -0.298 -1.20 1910 13.66 -0.298 -1.20 1885 13.64 -0.318 -1.28 1893 13.64 -0.318 -1.28 1904 13.61 -0.348 -1.40 1909 13.61 -0.348 -1.40 1911 13.60 -0.358 -1.44 1913 13.60 -0.358 -1.44 1890 13.56 -0.398 -1.60 1918 13.56 -0.398 -1.60 1907 13.51 -0.448 -1.81 1917 13.46 -0.498 -2.01 The most recent 159 continuous months, or 13 years and 3 months, on this GLB.Ts+dSST.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980 data set norm of 14 C. There are 1529 months of data on this data set: -- 645 of them are at or above the norm. -- 884 of them are below the norm. This run of 159 months above the norm is the result of a warming world. It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level of confidence. A major volcano eruption, thermonuclear war, or meteor impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years, otherwise expect it to continue. |
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