On 14 May 2004 10:17:58 -0400, Joseph Bartlo
wrote:


Regardless, my primary purpose for that post is to note how the hourly
precipitation probabilities in TWC forecasts are misleading. If you look
at them, you'll see that the highest probability for any hour of the daytime
period corresponds with the total daytime probability on their daily forecasts.
That is fundamentally incorrect from a statistical view. Even during a day
when showers are likely, the probability for any particular hour is quite low.
It doesn't rain all day. My post about the Gettysburg trip is a good example
of this. As I mentioned, TWC forecast maps would lead you to believe we'd
have basically a showery day - but it was a beautiful day, perhaps with a
brief period of late day or evening showers. That was long after we left,
so I don't know what they saw. I.e., the probability of rain while we were
touring the battlefield, etc. most of the day was very low - maybe 10 % for
any hour - but I bet TWC forecast had something like 60 % for each of those
hours.

You should write TWC about this and see what they say (they'd probably
email you with an ad). Heck, you may even win a date with one of
their single female OCM's, but finding a non pregnant one is pretty
difficult these days.


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