Some folks may recall that I mentioned a few days ago a potential
significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... this never
materialized, but I believe the energy from what would have been that
storm is setting up for a rain/mix/snow event in the deep South...
possible very big snows for Georgia, by their standards... could be up
to a foot in the mountains.

peace,

-*-
charles


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"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
Some folks may recall that I mentioned a few days ago a potential
significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... this never
materialized, but I believe the energy from what would have been that
storm is setting up for a rain/mix/snow event in the deep South...
possible very big snows for Georgia, by their standards... could be up
to a foot in the mountains.

peace,

-*-
charles




Upstate SC, NC and the Mtns of GA look to get spanked around...


a deep easterly flow is going to set up...

(click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev... point to an
excellent
upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html





the lift above that looks great...

notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_300_012m.gif


The GFS agrees

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_300_012m.gif


so they have 2 ingredients...
upper lift from jet support
notice the easterly low level jet of 30kts meeting the SE inflow of the same speeds
over GA...
couple that with air parcels moving up because of Geographics and you
the *BAM* air that has no where to go but up!




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_850_012m.gif



plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_500_018m.gif



all this boils down to is snow... and probably quite hard...

It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm, even by
northeast standands, nevermind,
southern ones.


time height x-sections bear it all out... deep moisture
good warm air advection through the levels... (veering winds with height)
means lots of rising air


http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et.../meteo_se.html

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et...3140.cloud.gif


and plenty of cold.. even in places like CLT/GSP for all/mostly snow...

Get those shovels ready....


Some of the NC mtn obs and reports should be interesting by Friday morning once
things are settling down.



-Eric


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"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
Some folks may recall that I mentioned a few days ago a potential
significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... this never
materialized, but I believe the energy from what would have been that
storm is setting up for a rain/mix/snow event in the deep South...
possible very big snows for Georgia, by their standards... could be up
to a foot in the mountains.

peace,

-*-
charles




Upstate SC, NC and the Mtns of GA look to get spanked around...


a deep easterly flow is going to set up...

(click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev... point to an
excellent
upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html





the lift above that looks great...

notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_300_012m.gif


The GFS agrees

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_300_012m.gif


so they have 2 ingredients...
upper lift from jet support
notice the easterly low level jet of 30kts meeting the SE inflow of the same speeds
over GA...
couple that with air parcels moving up because of Geographics and you
the *BAM* air that has no where to go but up!




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_850_012m.gif



plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_500_018m.gif



all this boils down to is snow... and probably quite hard...

It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm, even by
northeast standands, nevermind,
southern ones.


time height x-sections bear it all out... deep moisture
good warm air advection through the levels... (veering winds with height)
means lots of rising air


http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et.../meteo_se.html

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et...3140.cloud.gif


and plenty of cold.. even in places like CLT/GSP for all/mostly snow...

Get those shovels ready....


Some of the NC mtn obs and reports should be interesting by Friday morning once
things are settling down.



-Eric


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In article ,
Eric wrote:
} (click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
} and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev... point to an
} excellent
} upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
} http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html

For those who don't know, an "upslope" event refers to when
moisture-laden winds interact with the mountains. The areas that get hit
with the winds can get a serious dumping..

} the lift above that looks great...
}
} notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

Can you explain what this means, Eric?

} plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
} plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

Here too, what is "diffluence", for those of us who are still learning?

} It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm, even by
} northeast standands, nevermind,
} southern ones.

You really think so? How much do you think favored locations might get?

Thanks for the great post, Eric.

peace,

-*-
charles


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Thanks for the info.....What do you think the Ashville, NC will be seeing
from this storm?

"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Eric wrote:
} (click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
} and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev...
point to an
} excellent
} upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
} http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html

For those who don't know, an "upslope" event refers to when
moisture-laden winds interact with the mountains. The areas that get hit
with the winds can get a serious dumping..

} the lift above that looks great...
}
} notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

Can you explain what this means, Eric?

} plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
} plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

Here too, what is "diffluence", for those of us who are still learning?

} It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm,
even by
} northeast standands, nevermind,
} southern ones.

You really think so? How much do you think favored locations might get?

Thanks for the great post, Eric.

peace,

-*-
charles


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In article Yc7%b.10705$TT5.2754@lakeread06, Kevin wrote:
} Thanks for the info.....What do you think the Ashville, NC will be seeing
} from this storm?

Asheville should do pretty well here... 6"+ seems a good bet. I don't
know the area that well but believe the elevation varies a great deal
over a short distance; the mountains will have better snow ratios and
should do very well, a foot plus seems likely.

This is a really big deal down there, they only get one of these every
few years, I believe. Anyone in that area on the group?

peace,

-*-
charles


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Interesting, Eric... where do you think the northern boundary will be?


"Eric" wrote in message
...

"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
Some folks may recall that I mentioned a few days ago a potential
significant storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... this never
materialized, but I believe the energy from what would have been that
storm is setting up for a rain/mix/snow event in the deep South...
possible very big snows for Georgia, by their standards... could be up
to a foot in the mountains.

peace,

-*-
charles




Upstate SC, NC and the Mtns of GA look to get spanked around...


a deep easterly flow is going to set up...

(click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev... point
to an
excellent
upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html





the lift above that looks great...

notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_300_012m.gif


The GFS agrees


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_300_012m.gif


so they have 2 ingredients...
upper lift from jet support
notice the easterly low level jet of 30kts meeting the SE inflow of the
same speeds
over GA...
couple that with air parcels moving up because of Geographics and you
the *BAM* air that has no where to go but up!





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_850_012m.gif



plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...a_500_018m.gif



all this boils down to is snow... and probably quite hard...

It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm,
even by
northeast standands, nevermind,
southern ones.


time height x-sections bear it all out... deep moisture
good warm air advection through the levels... (veering winds with height)
means lots of rising air


http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et.../meteo_se.html

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/et...3140.cloud.gif


and plenty of cold.. even in places like CLT/GSP for all/mostly snow...

Get those shovels ready....


Some of the NC mtn obs and reports should be interesting by Friday morning
once
things are settling down.



-Eric


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thanks.....I have a friend down there, just wondering what they might be
getting.


"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
In article Yc7%b.10705$TT5.2754@lakeread06, Kevin
wrote:
} Thanks for the info.....What do you think the Ashville, NC will be
seeing
} from this storm?

Asheville should do pretty well here... 6"+ seems a good bet. I don't
know the area that well but believe the elevation varies a great deal
over a short distance; the mountains will have better snow ratios and
should do very well, a foot plus seems likely.

This is a really big deal down there, they only get one of these every
few years, I believe. Anyone in that area on the group?

peace,

-*-
charles


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"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Eric wrote:
} (click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
} and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev... point to an
} excellent
} upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
} http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html

For those who don't know, an "upslope" event refers to when
moisture-laden winds interact with the mountains. The areas that get hit
with the winds can get a serious dumping..

} the lift above that looks great...
}
} notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

Can you explain what this means, Eric?




LFQ - Left front quadrant ... 300mb jet streak


as seen here
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_300.gif


the location of the left front and right rear quadrants are in general of diverging
air.

Divergence is a good thing, if you have air below it converging.. since air can't go
through the ground it must rise
horizontal divergence is making room for the rising air from below.



} plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
} plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

Here too, what is "diffluence", for those of us who are still learning?



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/afdterms.htm#Deformation

here's a guide to some of the terms i might use in some discussions


also helpful, in deciphering AFD's from your favorite NWS office.






} It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big storm, even by
} northeast standands, nevermind,
} southern ones.

You really think so? How much do you think favored locations might get?




the cities in the piedmont should end up with a 5-10" snow...

further west in the mtns.. more... some of the most favored mtn locations probably muc
h more... 1-2'
not out of the question.



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Thanks again, Eric. We novices appreciate the explanation and not making us
feel stupid when asking (even though Charles asked on the novices' behalf).

-Perry-


"Eric" wrote in message
...

"Charles M. Kozierok" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Eric wrote:
} (click on ETA or AVN) and select US winds...
} and look at the U componet of the winds.... VERY large std dev...
point to an
} excellent
} upslope event, from the Carolina Piedmont west...
} http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/SREF/index.html

For those who don't know, an "upslope" event refers to when
moisture-laden winds interact with the mountains. The areas that get hit
with the winds can get a serious dumping..

} the lift above that looks great...
}
} notice the position of the LFQ of the 300jet , pushing into GA

Can you explain what this means, Eric?




LFQ - Left front quadrant ... 300mb jet streak


as seen here
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_300.gif


the location of the left front and right rear quadrants are in general of
diverging
air.

Divergence is a good thing, if you have air below it converging.. since
air can't go
through the ground it must rise
horizontal divergence is making room for the rising air from below.



} plenty of diffluence at 5h coupled with a nice vort max
} plenty of more air moving out of the way for air below it!

Here too, what is "diffluence", for those of us who are still learning?



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/afdterms.htm#Deformation

here's a guide to some of the terms i might use in some discussions


also helpful, in deciphering AFD's from your favorite NWS office.






} It might not be snowing in the northeast, but this will be a big
storm, even by
} northeast standands, nevermind,
} southern ones.

You really think so? How much do you think favored locations might get?




the cities in the piedmont should end up with a 5-10" snow...

further west in the mtns.. more... some of the most favored mtn locations
probably muc
h more... 1-2'
not out of the question.



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