The spells this year are all over the place. Far too difficult for me
to say anything with certainty. There are a lot of lunar phases falling
on or near the half hour. They are not my favourites.

JAN 6th 18 56.
Thundery.

JAN 14th 09 48.
A Low to the east of the UK dominates the week.

JAN 22nd 15 14.
Thundery.

JAN 29th 14 15
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

FEB 5th 06 29.
My problem with this kind is that it is one that moves from a classic
"Col" to a classic dominant Low.

Since you can't have a trough or a ridge running through a col, it
would make sense to say that there will be a series of any of these all
through this spell.

But the fact is that I just don't know.

FEB 13th 04 44.
This will be a sunny spell hopefully. With the cold nights of an high
over the UK in winter. If it is a little to the east, it will produce
cold weather as winds come south or rather the reverse if the other
way.

FEB 21st 07 17.
This is a rather unstable wet spell. Neither the full hour or the half,
it could devolve into some other.
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

FEB 28th 00 31.
This one is just like the spell for February the fifth. Further more it
follows a spell similar to the one that starts around the end of
January. Interesting. (I must try to pay them some attention.)

MAR 6th 20 16.

This should be fine with the dominant High to the West of the UK.

MAR 14th 23 35.
A bloody awkward one again. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot
of nasty seismic activity this year.
This spell looks like it might be full of ridges of high pressure,
running as it does so close on to the one before.

MAR 22nd 19 11
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

MAR 29th 10 15
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

APR 5th 12 01.
This is a classic spell for a Col. That means that the weather will be
flat with a tendency to overcast. There will be a series of small lows
and highs surrounding the UK with none of them gaining control of the
weather.

It could produce mists or drizzle. And were this spell to follow....

Oh, it does. Well then; there might well be the first named tropical
storm of the year in the North Atlantic.

APR 13th 16 40.
Another awkward one. A lot of this spell will depend on what happens in
the previous one.

APR 21 03 28.
Half way between a Thundery spell and a dominant Low. What will this
bring I wonder?
Maybe a run of low pressure areas. Keep an eye on the declination of
the moon if this happens. Maybe a series of occlusions running from
trough to trough? Do they do that?

APR 27th 19 44.
This one is like the spell for the fortnight earlier (from the 13th
April.)

MAY 5th 05 13
The dominant High for this spell is a little to the west of the UK. So
perhaps a little on the breezy side but nice none the less.

MAY 13th 06 51.
This is a wet spell due more to Troughs and weak Lows rather than one
substantial spell.

MAY 20th 09 21.
An awkward one this, as it is too far from the hour to be spot on for
thundery spell but it is a very unstable spell. Watch out for seismic
disturbances.

MAY 27th 05 26.

Check out the weather for the 14th of March and compare it to this one.
Lots of ridges of course. But going where I can not say.

JUNE 3rd 23 06.
This is a high smack dab over the UK. You couldn't ask for nicer
weather in summer.

JUNE 11th 18 03.
This is the first hurricane presager of the real hurricane season in
the N. Atlantic. The UK will have some dull overcast with a propensity
to Mists and possibly drizzle. The still air might give rise to
cyclones in the south.

There will certainly be a named storm. The second at least.

JUNE 18th 14 08.
This is a high smack dab over the UK again (see 3rd of June). You
couldn't ask for nicer weather in summer.

JUNE 25th 16 05.
A classic wet spell.

JULY 3rd 16 37.
Very awkward running right on the cusp as it does. My guess is for
ridges of High pressure areas way to the west affecting the UK when
troughs of Low pressure to the east are not.

JULY 11th 03 02.
Thunder and no let up down in the Bayou.

JULY 17th 19 13.

This is not good news.

JULY 25th 04 31.
Nor this.

AUG 2nd 08 46.
Or this.
Another awkward one, again too far from the hour to be spot on for a
thundery spell. Unstable, humid yet breezy?. Watch out for seismic
disturbances.

AUG 9th 10 54
A brief respite aught to arrive here but after such a wet run it looks
light it might delay.
High pressure centred on the UK again.

AUG 16th 01 51.
Thing should have calmed down by now. High pressure centred on the UK
remains. However it is a weak one except that it runs consecutively
with a strong spell.

AUG 23rd 19 10
Lows dominate the weather with this spell.

AUG 31st 22 57.
This is another where a classic high pressure is centred on the UK
again.

SEPT 7th 18 42.
An awkward one. Cols with approaching occlusions give way to Low
pressure areas.

SEPT 14th 11 15.
Fine with an High somewhat to the west of the UK sending breezes with
the warm fine weather.

SEPT 22nd 11 45.
Overcast. A mixture of ridges and troughs at some point in this spell.
Breezy with some drizzle or mist or just low cloud. Forecasting an
hurricane or two? I don't know.

SEPT 30th 11 04.
Fine weather again as with the spell for the 14th.

OCT 7th 03 13.
Thundery Lows coming in from the west?

OCT 14th 00 26.
A lot of unsettled weather. I just hate these half hourly phases!

OCT 22nd 05 14.
The dominant High for this spell is a little to the west of the UK. So
perhaps a little on the breezy side but nice none the less. As for May
5th.

OCT 29th 21 25

NOV 5th 12 58.
Classic wet spells with Lows dominant.

NOV 12th 17 45.
Overcast. Awkward. I don't really know. PITA to do these.

NOV 20th 22 18.
Overcast. Awkward. I don't really know. PITA to do these.


NOV 28th 06 29.
Overcast. Awkward. I don't really know. PITA to do these.


DEC 5th 00 25.
Overcast. Awkward. I don't really know. PITA to do these.


DEC 12th 14 32.
Overcast. Awkward. I don't really know. PITA to do these.


DEC 20th 14 01.
This is a high smack dab over the UK. Sunny as summer but very cold at
night. And the nights win

DEC 27th 14 48.
Heading for thunder.

Subject to approval.

I need to have another look at this forecast, as there were far too
many awkward ones for me to feel comfortable when putting them together.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
The spells this year are all over the place. Far too difficult for me
to say anything with certainty. There are a lot of lunar phases falling
on or near the half hour. They are not my favourites.

Corrections following the spells of mid December 2005:

JAN 6th 18:56.
Thundery.

I don't know why I got this as thundery. It is quite an obvious deep
Low and wet spell. As is the following spell.

JAN 14th 09:48.
A Low to the east of the UK dominates the week.

JAN 22nd 15:14.
Thundery.

It should be somewhat breezy too.

JAN 29th 14:15
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

Damn but I haven't got one of these right yet.
14:00 is a fine spell but a weak one. Let's try a High west of the UK
dominant.

FEB 5th 06:29.
My problem with this kind is that it is one that moves from a classic
"Col" to a classic dominant Low.

However it now appears that we get a quite well defined High with an
accompanying fog or overcast. The sunny part of the day is rather nice
and warm but the nights bring in the mists.

FEB 13th 04:44.
This will be a sunny spell hopefully. With the cold nights of an High
over the UK in winter. If it is a little to the east, it will produce
cold weather if winds come south.

FEB 21st 07 17.
This is a rather unstable wet spell. Neither the full hour or the half,
it could devolve into some other.
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

FEB 28th 00 31.
This one is just like the spell for February the fifth. Further more it
follows a spell similar to the one that starts around the end of
January. Interesting. (I must try to pay them some attention.)

And it seems to be paying dividends.

MAR 6th 20 16.

This should be fine with the dominant High to the West of the UK.

All highs that come in with this time of phase are the extended Azores
high. Where else would they be but the west of the UK?

Presumably the High will be all the higher?

MAR 14th 23 35.
A bloody awkward one again. I have a feeling there is going to be a lot
of nasty seismic activity this year.
This spell looks like it might be full of ridges of high pressure,
running as it does so close on to the one before.

Right the first of its kind this year. So what is going to do?

A mixture of Highs by day and overcast by night? A bit like the spells
I have recently corrected.

(Only not.)

MAR 22nd 19 11
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

MAR 29th 10 15
A Low to the west of the UK dominates the week.

In Britain, March traditionally either; comes in like a lion and goes
out like a lamb, or more occasionally; comes in like a lamb and goes
out like a lion. But a Low pressure area is a warm spell and a High
pressure area while sunny, is a cold one in winter.

So...

BTW it might be worth bearing in mind that the south western states of
the USA have had a really cold spell with this weeks phase. Quite an
extensive one at that.

It looks like continuing.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

The spells this year are all over the place. Far too difficult for me
to say anything with certainty. There are a lot of lunar phases falling
on or near the half hour. They are not my favourites.

But there are a lot of consecutive runs. Consider:

JAN 6th 18:56.
It is quite a deep Low and wet spell. As is the following spell.

JAN 14th 09:48.
A Low to the east of the UK dominates the week.

JAN 22nd 15:14.
Thundery. It should be somewhat breezy too.

3 of them, then a small blip with the following:

JAN 29th 14:15
14:00 is a fine spell but a weak one. Let's try a High west of the UK
dominant.

FEB 5th 06:29.
My problem with this kind is that it is one that moves from a classic
"Col" to a classic dominant Low.

However it now appears that we get a quite well defined High with an
accompanying fog or overcast. The sunny part of the day is rather nice
and warm but the nights bring in the mists.

Furthermore it is the first to follow a break in the synergy produced
when a set of phases occur at similar times (meteorologically
speaking.) And the next one is even more strongly a defined High.
That's actually quite interesting:

FEB 13th 04:44.
This will be a sunny spell with the cold nights of an High
over the UK in winter.

The reason that it is interesting is that during a spell when a
synergising effect occurs, some seismic wave starts oscillating deep in
the earth or some as yet unknown effect starts up that either stops
abruptly or hits a factor that causes concentration in a way has yet to
be explained.

I have got the idea that the recent spate of Mag 6 earthquakes was
caused by such a "system." And now we go back to the Low spells:

Synergy:
The interaction of two or more agents or forces so that their combined
effect is greater than the sum of their individual effects.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

The reason that it is interesting is that during a spell when a
synergising effect occurs, some seismic wave starts oscillating deep in
the earth or some as yet unknown effect starts up that either stops
abruptly or hits a factor that causes concentration in a way has yet to
be explained.

I have got the idea that the recent spate of Mag 6 earthquakes was
caused by such a "system." And now we go back to the Low spells:

I sorted all the Mag 6 and up quakes from lat year into spates that
occurred within 7 days of each other:

Jan 28 M 6.7

Feb 05 M 7.0
Feb 07 M 7.3

Feb 24 M 6.4

Apr 05 M 6.6

May 03 M 6.6

May 28 M 6.3
May 29 M 6.5

Jun 10 M 6.9

Jun 28 M 6.8

Jul 25 M 7.3

Sept 05 M 7.2
Sept 05 M 7.4
Sept 06 M 6.7

Sept 28 M 6.0

Oct 08 M 6.8
Oct 08 M 6.5
Oct 09 M 6.9
Oct 15 M 6.7
Oct 23 M 6.6
Oct 27 M 5.9
Nov 02 M 6.7
Nov 08 M 6.3
Nov 09 M 6.9
Nov 11 M 6.7
Nov 11 M 7.5
Nov 15 M 7.2
Nov 20 M 6.4
Nov 21 M 6.3
Nov 22 M 7.1
Nov 26 M 7.1
Nov 28 M 7.0

Dec 06 M 6.8

Dec 14 M 6.8

Dec 23 M 8.1
Dec 26 M 9.0

12 earthquakes of Mag 7 or more this year.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2004/

Admittedly it just looks like blurb if you try and fit it into line
with the phases. Although I have not yet sorted out where I would have
expected blips to occur. And it would be too much work to try and
relate it to the changes in the weather in the NE Atlantic. (Not that I
have ruled out looking at occluded fronts on the Bracknell sea level
reanalysis charts.)

I wonder how unusual that spate in October and November is.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

I sorted all the Mag 6 and up quakes from lat year into spates that
occurred within 7 days of each other:

Here are the ones for 2005:

Jan 01 M 6.6

Jan 16 M 6.6

Feb 05 M 7.1
Feb 08 M 6.8

Feb 19 M 6.5
Feb 22 M 6.4
Feb 26 M 6.8
Mar 02 M 7.1

Mar 20 M 6.6

Mar 28 M 8.7 Largest Earthquake

Apr 10 M 6.7
Apr 11 M 6.8
May 14 M 6.8
May 19 M 6.9

Jun 13 M 7.8
Jun 14 M 6.8
Jun 15 M 7.2
Jun 17 M 6.7

Jul 02 M 6.6
Jul 05 M 6.7

Jul 13 M 7.8
Jul 15 M 7.2
Jul 17 M 6.7
Jul 23 M 6.0
Jul 24 M 7.3

Aug 16 M 7.2

Sept 02 M 7.7

Sept 26 M 7.5
Sept 29 M 6.7

Oct 08 M 7.6 Deadliest Earthquake

Oct 19 M 6.4

Nov 14 M 7.0
Nov 17 M 6.9
Nov 19 M 6.5

Nov 27 M 6.0
Dec 02 M 6.5
Dec 05 M 6.8

13 Quakes of Mag 7 or more this year so far.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2005/

Obviously you can do what you like with statistics. Hiving off the
totals in 8 day intervals will make them more impressive and at 6 day
intervals less. The following are the average magnitude occurrences
annually:

Descriptor Magnitude Average Annually

Great 8 and higher 1 ¹
Major 7 - 7.9 17 ²
Strong 6 - 6.9 134 ²
Moderate 5 - 5.9 1319 ²
Light 4 - 4.9 13,000 (estimated)
Minor 3 - 3.9 130,000 (estimated)
Very Minor 2 - 2.9 1,300,000 (estimated)

¹ Based on observations since 1900
² Based on observations since 1990
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html

Comparing them with severe storms set out in the same time frames
-whatever they are might reveal something intersting.