On Monday, 17 May 2021 at 17:09:26 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/05/2021 16:16, N_Cook wrote:
Comparing representatives of the 2 camps, 06Z outputs for 300mB wind, I see
GFS about 84h to 96h an omega block around the UK
DWD about 84h to 96h no such block
GFS 12Z output has shifted that omega block to the Baltic allowing
stronger wind over the UK for 21 May , perhaps by the next run or two
loosing the residual block and the ground level wind regime back to
closer to 20 May for the UK overpass and the other models.


An Omega block persists for several days, so wouldn't shift anywhere in a hurry. When I look at the GFS model charts I see a south-shifted jet with a large upper low to the north. There is a short-wave upper trough-ridge-trough moving quickly east. This is driving the system in question. There is no evidence of an Omega block.

--
Freddie
Alcaston
Shropshire
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...cs/latest.xlsx