On Monday, 17 May 2021 at 13:29:07 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/05/2021 13:25, Freddie wrote:
On Monday, 17 May 2021 at 13:21:02 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 17/05/2021 11:16, Freddie wrote:
On Monday, 17 May 2021 at 09:45:04 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
Any insights into the model discomfort?
A complete split in the models, GFS and Arpege have the low hanging west
of Ireland and coming over the UK 22 May, ECMWF, Germany/Canada are
still with 20 May.
Model differences are due to small differences in jet streak strength and orientation emanating from the USA. The jet streaks are being heavily influenced by the severe convection occurring over the USA.

So whether the blocking loop develops around the UK about 21 May or does
not.
What's a blocking loop?

An Omega block
--
Oh okay. There is no omega block over the UK in that timeframe. In the upper air I see a progressive pattern with short-wave ridges and troughs, albeit with a southward shift relative to normal.

--
Freddie
Alcaston
Shropshire
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...cs/latest.xlsx