Freddie wrote:

On Monday, 25 February 2019 07:27:54 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The met Office forecast for the Peak District issued at 0410 this
morning is a bit odd. For 0600 the weather was forecast to be sunny
despite the fact that sunrise wasn't until 0705. The forecast
temperature for 300m a.s.l. was 11°. In Tideswell, at 300m, the
actual temperature at 0600 was -0.4°.

The forecast temperature at 300m for 0900 is also 11°. This also
seems unlikely as the current temp(at 0725) is -0.9°.

I can't explain the "sunny before sunrise" bit, but the temperature
forecast is probably one for the "free air" (or maybe hilltop)
temperature taken from the model forecast, as there is a very low
inversion this morning. I'm guessing you are in a valley of sorts?
At Leek, not so far from you, the temperature was 8.3 at 0700z, with
a dew point of -3.

I think the answer is probably a bit too much model-watching and not
enough keeping a watch on what is actually happening.

Tideswell village sits in Tideswell Dale and is about 50 metres or so
below the surrounding countryside. Our house is above the village just
where the land starts to level out. Tideswell is actually near the
middle of a limestone plateau that has an extent of something over 100
square miles. Much of it is at 300-350m a.s.l., some parts a bit higher
and some, mainly in the valleys, a bit lower. The temperatures that I
record are typically very similar to those at other locations across
the plateau. That was the case this morning so it wasn't the we had an
anomalous low 'blip'. There certainly was a low level inversion. At
Flash (about 490m), for example, which is about 9 miles SW of here, the
temperature 'flat-lined' at about 10°throughout the night. In
Tideswell and Buxton the temperature fell below 3° around midnight and
continued to fall slowly thereafter. At the time the offending forecast
was issued (0410) the temperature in Tideswell was +0.7° and at Buxton
it was +1.0°. These were typical of temperatures across the plateau at
the time. With sunrise not due until 0705 the prediction of 11° for
0600 was fanciful.

As I say, probably a bit too much model-watching and not checking what
was actually happening. Or, as happens all too often, perhaps just
regurgitating the previous afternoon's issue of the forecast with the
only change being the stated time of issue. It shouldn't happen but it
often does. Unfortunately, in this case I don't have yesterday
afternoon's issue to check.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr