On Friday, 27 July 2018 15:10:12 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Freddie wrote:

On Friday, 27 July 2018 13:58:31 UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
JGD wrote:
This morning I had reason to look at the wind forecasts for Anglesey
for tomorrow. For the period between 0900z and 1200z the Met office
website is predicting SW Force 5 for Valley whereas the BBC website
is predicting SSW Force 8, also for Valley. You pays your money and
you takes your choice. These forecasts are, of course, fully
automated and I suppose they are based on different models.
There is a trough rotating north-eastwards across that area. The Met
Office model has it clearing north of Valley between 0600z and 0700z,
with strong SSWly winds ahead and less strong (but still lively) SWly
winds behind. Looks as if the Met Office model is quicker with this
than whatever model the BBC is using today.


It does highlight what a nonsense it is to attempt categoric
location/time specific forecasting. Even at 24 hours out there is
always a degree of uncertainty. An expression of this uncertainty
should be an integral part of any forecast.
Indeed! But folk love their deterministic forecasts :-)

I'll get off my soapbox now
:-)
:-)

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)