View Single Post
  #13   Report Post  
Old July 27th 18, 12:31 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
JGD JGD is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: May 2018
Posts: 87
Default Interpreting forecast rain probabilities

Another curiosity I've just noticed for this afternoon is a predicted
rainfall probability comparison for Ely and Cambridge (just 15 miles
apart, both of course well inland) and both on the 1200 forecast

Time Ely Cambridge

1500 10% 50%
1600 50% 5%
1700 50% 5%
1800 50% 5%
1900 60% 60%
2000 60% 30%
2100 60% 10%
2200 70% 10%
2300 20% 10%

(Sorry don't know how well the formatting will hold up!)

I guess the storms will be coming broadly from the S/SW and travelling
at eg 10mph so Cambridge might be one hour ahead of Ely for a given
storm cell. NB Cambridge is approx 15 miles SSE of Ely.

But it's odd - apparently high resolution predictions but not too much
correlation between two places that are quite close neighbours.