Interpreting forecast rain probabilities
Another curiosity I've just noticed for this afternoon is a predicted
rainfall probability comparison for Ely and Cambridge (just 15 miles
apart, both of course well inland) and both on the 1200 forecast
Time Ely Cambridge
1500 10% 50%
1600 50% 5%
1700 50% 5%
1800 50% 5%
1900 60% 60%
2000 60% 30%
2100 60% 10%
2200 70% 10%
2300 20% 10%
(Sorry don't know how well the formatting will hold up!)
I guess the storms will be coming broadly from the S/SW and travelling
at eg 10mph so Cambridge might be one hour ahead of Ely for a given
storm cell. NB Cambridge is approx 15 miles SSE of Ely.
But it's odd - apparently high resolution predictions but not too much
correlation between two places that are quite close neighbours.
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