View Single Post
  #11   Report Post  
Old July 27th 18, 09:47 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
John Hall[_2_] John Hall[_2_] is offline
external usenet poster
 
First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,510
Default Interpreting forecast rain probabilities

In message , Len
writes
On Thursday, July 26, 2018 at 8:24:32 PM UTC+1, John Hall wrote:

The thing I notice most is how different the temperatures in those
hourly computer-generated forecasts are from the maxima and minima
included as part of the textual human-generated forecasts. In hot summer
weather, such as we are having now, the computer-generated temperatures
seem to be substantially lower. In cold winter weather they seem to be
higher. The human-generated figures normally seem to be far closer to
reality.


I notice the same down here on the SW Devon coast John.
The max for the last few days has been forecast for the next day as
21C. It has reached 24 or 25C each day. I wonder if the models are
trying to factor in a sea breeze. I don't think they are that clever,
evidently not that clever with the temperature.


I don't think that would be a factor here. I live thirty miles from the
nearest coast, and it would be unusual for a sea breeze to penetrate
this far, especially as the South Downs would be in the way.
--
John Hall
"Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
that man can never learn anything from history."
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)