On Friday, December 1, 2017 at 9:39:30 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I wasn't going to bother this year but the models have piqued my interest yet again.
It is looking average overall. Whether that masks a yo-yo of cold to mild, or weeks of anticyclonic gloom is anyone's guess...

https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2yt

Returning to this I was a bit out on precipitation otherwise not a bad effort. Blog review he https://wp.me/p2VSmb-2F8

"The mean temperature for winter 2017/18 is looking average overall with average precipitation. While that doesn’t sound exciting for anyone looking for colder weather and snow I think the figures mask frequent 3 or 4 day-long cold snaps from the Arctic interspersed with milder interludes from Atlantic incursions; typical characteristics of a pattern driven by the troposphere. For anything longer term we have to hope for a warming of the stratosphere, a sudden stratospheric warming over the Arctic, that downwells into the troposphere, reversing the general westerly circulation. We are overdue an ‘SSW’ event but, even if one were to happen, its effects wouldn’t be felt until much later in the winter."