On 04/10/2017 14:12, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 4 October 2017 14:06:57 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 04/10/2017 13:02, Freddie wrote:
On Wednesday, 4 October 2017 08:37:25 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote:
I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their account of that night to this blog?
http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no
second attempt on e-s
A repeat for the Midlands and East Anglia tonight?
GFS has the 1mB/hour drop character in place of cyclogenic upper air
coupling.
I'm surprised no heads-up on this board so far
The 1 hPa per hour drop is just the threshold for explosive cyclogenisis. It doesn't tell you much about likely strength of wind. Looking at the 1987 storm, the pressure gradient between 51N and 54N on the meridian at 0600UTC was 24 hPa. Tne same measurement at midnight tonight (when the low is in a similar position to 1987) is 16 hPa. So a repeat is unlikely with tonight's storm. Remember also that a pressure gradient doesn't instantaneously give you the wind strength indicated - it takes a finite amount of time for the force exerted by the pressure gradient to accelerate the air to the indicated velocity. The 1987 storm centre had been at 959 hPa for approximately 10 hours before 0600 UTC. Even 6 hours before 0000 UTC, tonight's storm was 4-5 hPa shallower. I think impacts in the Netherlands and Belgium will comfortably exceed anything we experience in the UK tonight. The low tonight isn't anything like 1987 IMHO.
Is your historic data , hindsight data from after the event or the data
,as it was, 1 day before the '87 great felling?
ie like for like
It is analysed actual data from the time of the event. It isn't forecast data. Even if it was, it wouldn't be "like for like" as models and their methods of assimilating observational data have changed massively since 1987.
From what I remember of the storm, there was no awareness by anyone
,prior to the 87 storm, about its upcoming severity, during the day before.
Is there an analysis somewhere , of the data available at the time,to
see if there was any pointers at all, prior to the event.
Had French metmen got a better handle on it , the day before , for instance.