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Old February 11th 17, 11:13 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Norman Lynagh[_5_] Norman Lynagh[_5_] is offline
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Default Conflicting forecasts and warnings - yet again.

Will Hand wrote:

On 10 Feb 2017 19:03:11 GMT
"Norman Lynagh" wrote:

There's a yellow snow warning in force for here from 1800 this evening till
1000 on Saturday. The current automated forecast for Tideswell gives the
following:

Fri 10th
--------
1800: Cloudy. Probability of precipitation 10%
1900: Cloudy. PoP 10%
2000: Cloudy. PoP 10%
2100: Partly cloudy. PoP 5%
2200: Slight snow. PoP 50%
2300: Cloudy. PoP 10%

Sat 11th
--------
0000: Cloudy. PoP 10%
0100: Cloudy. PoP 10%
0200: Slight snow. PoP 50%
0300: Slight snow. PoP 60%
0400: Slight snow. PoP 70%
0500: Heavy snow. PoP 90%
0600: Heavy snow. PoP 80%
0700: Slight snow. PoP 60%
0800: Slight snow. PoP 60%
0900: Slight snow. PoP 60%
1000: Slight snow. PoP 60%

That takes us to the end of the period of validity of the yellow warning.
Yet, after that the Tideswell forecast has slight snow continuing till 1300
then it predicts heavy snow from 1400 on Saturday right through to 1500 on
Sunday, with no current warning in force for this.

So, we have a warning for a 16-hour period during which not much snow is
forecast to fall then a forecast of 24 hours of heavy snow for which no
warning has been issued. It doesn't hang together very well :-(


Produced by two different methods. I suspect the human Chief Forecaster is not
aware of the automated forecast. I agree it's an utter shambles and a
disgrace.

Will


The warnings have just caught up with the forecasts. Yellow snow warning issued
at 1050 this morning, valid from 2100 this evening till 1500 tomorrow. The snow
is heavier now than it was at any time during the previous warning period that
expired at 1000 today. I suppose we have white snow at the moment, not yellow
snow :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr