Medium-range forecasting
In message , Bernard Burton
writes
Never mind the medium range, today's forecasts in BBC R4 have been
pretty useless. Unless my hearing is faulty, the only mention of rain
on the 7.55 forecast was some drizzle over Wales. There was already
some precipitation in the SE showing on the radar then, and here we had
intrermittent slight drizzle all night, and this developed into over an
hour of moderate rain and drizzle here, and appeared to be quite
widespread on the radar. The models obviously missed this development,
and a lack of a decent covering of 'real' obs and a dearth of radio
soundings makes this type blunder only to be expected. I noticed too,
that the EGLL TAF has almost as many amends as there were METARS!. On
the 1255 forecast I heard a lot about how cold it would be later in the
week, but no mention or apology for the downright duff forecasts for today.
The forecast for SE England currently shown on the Met Office website,
and time-stamped at 13:19 says:
This Evening and Tonight:
Often overcast skies tonight with mist and patches of fog. Light winds
at first will freshen later. It should be a dry night for most, but with
a few spots of drizzle in the wind. Minimum Temperature 5 °C.
I happened to be visiting a friend in SE London today, and there was
moderate rain there from at least 18:30 to 19:00. So it seems that
nobody at the Met Office noticed that their forecast was wrong till
later than 13:19, and even then they didn't bother to issue an updated
forecast. I know it's Sunday, and perhaps there aren't mainly people on
duty, but it's not very impressive.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)
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