Col wrote:

On 08/01/2017 10:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The medium range models are a continuing source of light entertainment. The
00z operational runs this morning show the following predictions for the
British Isles for Tue/Wed 17th/18th

ECMWF: Bitterly cold easterlies setting in.
GFS: Very mild SW'lies
GEM: Very strong, cold westerlies with polar maritime air

All that can reasonably deduced from that lot is that, on the basis of
current knowledge, the evolution of the weather pattern that far ahead is
unforecastable to any useful level of reliability at present. Long may that
state of affairs continue :-)


That GFS run has sent the model output discussion thread on TWO into
meltdown, with much wailing and gnashing of teeth!

It's all immaterial to me anyway as guess where I'm going tomorrow!

On the one handit would be good to miss 3 weeks of dismal winter weather but
I would be gutted ifI missed out on a significant snow event.

There's certainly potential for several cm on Thursday. Wind direction looks to
be about right for us to catch the Liverpool Bay shower stream. Should be cold
enough up here for a fair bit of drifting in what looks like being a pretty
strong wind.

Enjoy your trip! I'm currently on stand-by but nothing firmed up as yet.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org
@TideswellWeathr