On 29/12/2016 17:02, John Hall wrote:
In message , John Hall
writes
In message , Norman Lynagh
writes

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles
at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

The 12Z GFS operational is now out. Somewhat to my surprise, it keeps a
pronounced cold spell, albeit not so extreme or long-lasting as in the
06Z run. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF comes up with
when it becomes available, though the cold spell - if it should happen -
begins pretty much at the end of the 10 day period that ECMWF forecasts
for.
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We should probably be looking at things closer to now. I wouldn't be
surprised to see a little snow on the back edge of the cold front as it
moves through in the early hours of this Monday. Won't hang around but a
couple of coldish days. Then I would imagine most of the first half of
January will be at least on the cold side with a fair amount of
blocking. Where the various HP's end up of course will be critical to
the extent of any cold or snow but I think I am prepared to say "at
least it won't be mild" ;-) A few days like today wouldn't be bad either!
Dave

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