In message , John Hall
writes
In message , Norman Lynagh
writes

......but that run is an extreme cold outlier amongst the ensembles at 06z. To
take any notice of it would be very unwise.


Of course it would be unwise to take much notice. That said, the
ensemble mean is looking quite chilly from about the 6th January
onwards, with some other ensemble members being little warmer than the
operational.

The 12Z GFS operational is now out. Somewhat to my surprise, it keeps a
pronounced cold spell, albeit not so extreme or long-lasting as in the
06Z run. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF comes up with
when it becomes available, though the cold spell - if it should happen -
begins pretty much at the end of the 10 day period that ECMWF forecasts
for.
--
John Hall
"One can certainly imagine the myriad of uses
for a hand-held iguana maker"
Hobbes (the tiger, not the philosopher!)