In message ,
"Alan [Guildford]" writes
Also if the operational is an outlier for two or three consecutive
runs, does that not perhaps suggest it is picking up on something the
ensembles are not seeing.

That's suggested even more strongly now, now that the GFS operational
has been an outlier for a couple more runs.

Meanwhile the 12Z ECM operational run has an interesting new development
by day 10.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones