In message ,
"Alan [Guildford]" writes
On Friday, 8 January 2016 09:35:40 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes
Very poor.

http://tinyurl.com/zw7k6vj

Wrong link, Lawrence. It takes me to
http://smg.photobucket.com/user/mani...irfix.jpg.html

But assuming it was to either the GFS or ECMWF 00Z operational run, both
of those look to be mild outliers to a great or lesser extent. There
still seems to be a great deal of uncertainty about developments beyond
as little as 5-6 days out.

Looking at the ensemble for London, it does look like the operational
has a few chums joining along. Basically looks like there are two camps
-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Also if the operational is an outlier for two or three consecutive
runs, does that not perhaps suggest it is picking up on something the
ensembles are not seeing. Aren't the ensembles run on a coarser grid?


I believe so, yes.

That the models seem to have pulled back in their enthusiasm for cold
compared with 24 hours ago could be related to the SSW charts that Keith
has posted. These suggest that the modest warming that was being
forecast now seems to be forecast to go rapidly into reverse.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones