On Friday, 8 January 2016 09:35:40 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes
Very poor.

http://tinyurl.com/zw7k6vj

Wrong link, Lawrence. It takes me to
http://smg.photobucket.com/user/mani...irfix.jpg.html

But assuming it was to either the GFS or ECMWF 00Z operational run, both
of those look to be mild outliers to a great or lesser extent. There
still seems to be a great deal of uncertainty about developments beyond
as little as 5-6 days out.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Looking at the ensemble for London, it does look like the operational has a few chums joining along. Basically looks like there are two camps -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Also if the operational is an outlier for two or three consecutive runs, does that not perhaps suggest it is picking up on something the ensembles are not seeing. Aren't the ensembles run on a coarser grid?