On 08/01/2016 09:27, John Hall wrote:

But assuming it was to either the GFS or ECMWF 00Z operational run, both
of those look to be mild outliers to a great or lesser extent. There
still seems to be a great deal of uncertainty about developments beyond
as little as 5-6 days out.

It's a hold fire moment if model forecasting.
One thing that makes me a bit sceptical about any cold spell is that
there has been a lot of talk of a SSW event on the cards but the links I
use current show quite the opposite at present.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2015_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2015_merra.pdf

We shall see..

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman