There has for some time now been a bit of a trend towards a change
around that date. The GFS ensembles now show a majority trend for
something colder around the 14th on as does the latest ECM run. 10 days
is a long time but it could be the first little cold snap of the winter
for us soft southerners.
Dave, S.Essex
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Anyway, though the GFS 12Z operational run may look unremarkable at
T+288, the GFS ensemble and the ECM operational run and ensemble look
much more encouraging for cold-weather lovers from about 8-9 days out.
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...... with the added weight of two of us saying it on here ;-)
Dave