On Friday, July 24, 2015 at 1:35:40 PM UTC+3, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
In fact there is are large differences in model output.

Anyone wish to hazard a forecast for 10 days time? Easy this business, isn't it?


T+240 Mon 3 Aug 2015

The progressive weather pattern that has been a feature of this
summer will continue, with above normal Atlantic mobility due to
a stronger than normal jet - probably in part due to the
continuing cold SST anomaly extending from Labrador to Ireland,
and the continuing warm SST anomaly extending from east of
Florida to Spain.
*
At T+240 we are likely to see low pressure not far from NW
Scotland and high pressure centred over Germany and Poland, with
ridging northwards to Norway.* The high will slowly progress
eastward, the low will make quicker progress north-eastwards then
northwards.
*
Cooler than average over the north and north west (Scotland,
Northern Ireland), with a cool and unstable returning Polar
Maritime airmass persisting giving showery conditions,
interrupted by rain from occluded fronts associated with
travelling depressions - one such occlusion affecting the north
west at T+240* Likely to be mainly dry the east side of
Scotland.* Dry and warmer than average over the south and south
east, with the beginnings of a temporary warm airflow off the
continent.* It looks as if the upper trough driving the low over
the north west may well interact with the warm air off the
continent, giving rain and thunder - but this interaction
probably mainly to the east of the UK, and later than T+240.*
Average temperatures over the rest of the UK (SW, Wales,
Midlands, some of NW England, NE and E England), and probably
dry.
*
Main uncertainties: longitudinal position of the main features -
this will affect speed of penetration of rain from the occlusion
into the eastern side of Scotland and north east England.* It
will also affect the extent of warm air over the
south-east.
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

It'll be interesting to see how accurate this is, freddie. Thank you for having a go.