In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
John Hall wrote:
In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
Looking at the historic charts earlier I noticed that there were
several, especially early on, that didn't look that cold. I know
there were several threatened thaws (probably based on expected
evolution of those charts)that didn't happen. After a very snowy
start I seem to remember much of the UK and Europe remained snow
covered. How much would that have depressed the temperature had
there not been such widespread cover?
I think that, especially when winds are light, a deep snow cover can
depress temperatures quite a lot, though I'm reluctant to try to put a
figure on it.

I wonder if the same charts showed up now whether the same
expectation of cold would materialise. I doubt it, with Europe being
relatively mild still, sea temperatures warmer and I suppose +1C for GW.
Yes, sea temperatures must have a big effect.
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I must admit if it was one in a hundred

One in 200 might be closer to the mark.

then the odds for a repeat must be a lot less now.

True (I'd actually say "a lot more" but I know what you meant), although
December 2010 was a reminder that lengthy spells of severe cold can
still occur.

Loking at the current output one in a million might be more
appropriate!
Dave



Though some notable winters (notably 1947) haven't begun till
considerably later than this. And looking at that winter's charts for
the first couple of weeks of January seemed to give no hint of what was
to come.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)