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Old May 5th 14, 07:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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Default ENSO update from NOAA. El Nino Likely this year.

Monday ENSO update from NOAA

Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) were above-average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, the chances of El Niņo increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer.

I'm sure the update from the Aussie BOM tomorrow will say something similar.. An El Nino this year would make record global temperatures, through the Boreal winter and into next year, almost certain.