On Wednesday, October 23, 2013 6:23:53 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, October 20, 2013 9:31:30 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, October 19, 2013 7:56:37 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Friday, October 18, 2013 9:57:07 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:







On Thursday, October 17, 2013 8:27:42 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:















I've been watching this and occasionally referring to the possibility for several days, but we have entered, what could be, an extended period of mobile, Atlantic-sourced weather. First forecast is for 10 days to 27th Oct:















**On Sunday, 27th Oct, the UK will be continuing to experience Zonal, Atlantic weather, with depressions bringing an alternation of rain bands, showers and ridges of high pressure. Despite some cooler period with NW winds, temperatures throughout the period will be generally warmer than average, the chance of frosts being limited to ridges of high pressure between low pressure systems. Pressure will be highest over continental Europe. Rainfall will be above average for most areas and some areas, especially the West, may be very wet.**



Almost textbook zonality (whatever that actually is!) on tonight's models. Generally windy, wet and mild, punctuated by ridges of high pressure out to the 27th. After that, a suggestion that our UK weather may turn a little colder, as the source of our air is sourced from a more north-westerly direction, but that may, or may not be the case, still, in 10 days time.



The first hints that the zonal train could hit the buffers towards the end of he month, on tonight's gfs and ECM charts. GEM not in agreement and there's been no consistency, of course, but it's the first hint in days of something different to zonality at 10 days.



Still there on the gfs, but nothing on the ECM operational. Model fluff?



It was model fluff. See what the ECM 00z and 12z say, but I may well be extending this forecast by another 3 days into November, by this evening. There seems no end to this mild, wet, Atlantic weather.

No change in the gfs. Zonal at 10 days.