On Friday, July 26, 2013 3:06:38 PM UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
Given the relatively less dynamic/kinematic large scale conditions in summer, I'd reckon that it's rather a thankless task trying to make sense of monthly forecasts in these months.

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This is a is a very true thing to say indeed! Summer is a bugger, and I refer you back to the near uselessness of a weak ENSO teleconnection, and my puzzlement as to why the text cited that as part reasoning for the July forecast. But your penultimate paragraph raises a relevant point as well.

There is one strong teleconnection for this summer, though, which may (or may not!) have helped me out; and a couple of really good analogues. The dynamics have been very close so far this year to a couple of particular years; and cutting through the complexities of the teleconnection analogues has been a help. TheNH sset-up in late spring gave some decnt clues (as they might for my late autumn "guess" - but that's another story!) Sometimes you have to get rid of the trees to see the wood.

Stephen.