TWO medium range forecast progress (longish)
"At the moment our winter forecast is proving to be exceptionally
accurate"
Anyone agree with Brian on this one?
A quick glance at the forecast itself, and that statement above is
proved wrong
I find it very annoying, that people use the word 'proof' without
really knowing what it means
Remember the forecast was issued on the 1st Dec 2004
When the Euro High was firmly in control of the weather across the Uk
You didn't need to have psychic abilities to foresee that anti-cyclonic
conditions would be
continuing at least for a while going into December
Therefore Brian had a higher chance of getting the next immediate two
weeks correct compared with
the rest of the forecast
i would like to say that TWO bash USW.
If someone clenches their fists in public, then someone else will
clench their fists in public, but i see what you are saying, to not
lower ourselves down to their level
They claim to have successfully predicted the cold snap over Christmas
(it lasted for two days)
Except it didn't really arrive across the south of England, or maybe i
missed all the snow reports from southern Uk
Listen, anyone can write a few paragraphs that make some
generalisations about the weather for the next three months, without
committing to specifics.
It's people guessing what the general trends are going to be
Then they claim success if any part of their generalised forecasts turn
out correct. Wouldn't stand up to a scientific level of scutiny, with
this being a scientific discussion forum...
A popular radio talk show host in the US, reckons that someone
successfully predicted the tidal wave on 26th December 2004, because
they wrote "tsunami" around about 12 months ago, but without saying
where or when it would occur.
So if i write "hurricane" and it can apply for the next 12 months, then
if a hurricane occurs anywhere in the world, i will have considered to
have made a correct prediction. What a wonderful psychic i must be !!
I consider the way TWO and Metcheque put out their forecasts to be in
the category of 'mystic weather forecasts'
"Let's write something that is headline grabbing at the beginning of
December, and then hope it's right"
Sooner or later, the Uk will have a severe winter again, then they'll
get a hit, if you repeat something often enough, of course, sooner or
later you'll get that hit
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