TWO medium range forecast progress (longish)
ok, let's take a look at this in a calm fashion.
The first thing that needs to be done is to have a recap. I'll need to
re-produce the TWO winter forecast at end of message
December: They said the cold snap would mostly affect the North and the
East
Incorrect. The cold snap mostly affected the North and the West (high
ground particularly)
They said the cold snap would occur shortly before Christmas
Incorrect: It occured right over the Christmas weekend
For the January cold spell, they are forecasting the cold to come from
western Europe
Towards end of the second week of the month. South-eastern and Eastern
areas to be very cold
Feb, still too far away to talk about
There are some specifics there, but it's still a generalised forecast,
as any very long range forecast is going to be
And the way this winter has shaped up so far. Generally mild with brief
cold snap interludes, following the pattern
from recent winters, it seems to me
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Headline:Cold with snow
Temperature
Colder than average with a Central England Temperature (CET) slightly
below average. Much colder conditions in January and February are
expected.
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Precipitation
Often relatively dry. Some spells of heavy rain are likely at times but
these are unlikely to be frequent enough to bring precipitation levels
up to average values.
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December
Often quiet and dry conditions are expected to persist through much of
the first half of the month with temperatures remaining close to the
average for most of the time. The second half of the month is likely to
bring a notable change to more unsettled conditions at first, but then
a significant outbreak of wintry weather bringing widespread and sharp
frosts, and also a significant risk of snow for many areas, although
the north and east of the UK look to be at the highest risk. We think
the cold snap is most likely to occur shortly before Christmas. For the
month as a whole temperatures are expected to be about 0.5C above the
Central England Temperature (CET) average. Precipitation levels are
likely to be generally below average.
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January
Overall we expect a colder January with more snow than has become the
norm during recent years. The first half of the month is expected to
bring mild and damp conditions for a time before much colder weather
becomes embedded across western Europe and pushes towards the UK
probably towards the end of the second week of the month. This is
likely to mean a high risk of snow for much of the UK during the middle
part of the month. Our expectation is for south eastern and eastern
areas to experience particularly cold weather during this period. The
cold or even very cold theme looks likely to continue for a time before
milder weather returns towards the end of the month. For the month as a
whole temperatures are expected to be about 0.5C to 1C below the
Central England Temperature (CET) average. Precipitation levels for the
month are expected to be close to average.
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February
Another rather cold month is expected with wintry outbreaks from time
to time bringing the risk of further widespread falls of snow. The
month is likely to begin with mild and rather unsettled weather across
the UK. After the first week, a return to much colder conditions is
forecast and the risk of snow will spread from the east across most of
the UK. Frosts will probably develop widely and become severe in
places. Cold conditions may persist for a significant length of time
before milder weather comes back towards the end of the month bringing
rain to most areas. For the month as a whole temperatures are expected
to be about 0.2C to 0.7C below average. Precipitation levels for the
month are expected to be slightly below average.
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