On Sunday, December 16, 2012 7:29:28 PM UTC, wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Sunday, December 16, 2012 6:39:36 PM UTC, Teignmouth wrote:





thanks you Will. After reading and learning from these, I doubt you will

be as willing to draw such strong links to SSW's and especially to very

weak ones, ("stratwarm" is a term used nowhere in the article, or the

blog). I could be wrong on that, of course.











In the 1st link that Will provided by the Met Office:







The new model, dubbed the "high top" system, is different from the

previous system as it takes into account something known as sudden

stratospheric warming's (SSWs) - which have previously been shown to be

responsible for cold conditions at ground level.







SSWs happen when the usual westerly winds in the stratosphere, between

10km and 50km up, break down and ultimately reverse.





Errrrrr yes. We all know the atmospheric signatures of strong SSWs. We also

know that the MetO have changed their models and incorporated strong SSWs in

their forecasting. So your point is about the effects of the weak SSW that

Will got hopelessly wrong? Will understands exactly what I mean. A pity you

don't.



==========================



The point is, is that even relatively weak or shortlived warmings will

decrease the zonal wind and if there is an existing block that will help

prolong it. It is no coincidence that the last block retreated eastwards in

the models when the stratwarm ceased.



Will

--

Show us the research that shows that a very weak event (the SSW last week was exactly that), which does not actually propagate to the surface (it didn't), produces an enhanced effect to a surface block.