On Sunday, December 16, 2012 6:39:36 PM UTC, Teignmouth wrote:


thanks you Will. After reading and learning from these, I doubt you will be as willing to draw such strong links to SSW's and especially to very weak ones, ("stratwarm" is a term used nowhere in the article, or the blog).. I could be wrong on that, of course.





In the 1st link that Will provided by the Met Office:



The new model, dubbed the "high top" system, is different from the previous system as it takes into account something known as sudden stratospheric warming's (SSWs) - which have previously been shown to be responsible for cold conditions at ground level.



SSWs happen when the usual westerly winds in the stratosphere, between 10km and 50km up, break down and ultimately reverse.


Errrrrr yes. We all know the atmospheric signatures of strong SSWs. We also know that the MetO have changed their models and incorporated strong SSWs in their forecasting. So your point is about the effects of the weak SSW that Will got hopelessly wrong? Will understands exactly what I mean. A pity you don't.