In article
,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
On Jan 29, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:
Both models' 12Z operational runs now bring in warmer air next Saturday.
That's as far as the UKMO run extends, but after a milder weekend the
ECMWF brings the easterly back on Monday and for the rest of its run.
The ECMWF ensemble isn't out yet, but will be interesting.

Before then, Thursday and Friday still look like being very cold, and I
reckon based on the 850mb temperatures that the maxima of 1-3C shown on
the Countryfile forecast for those two days are on the high side. I
reckon that in the eastern half of England temperatures are unlikely to
get above freezing on those two days.

The models are struggling with setting in this easterly. By Wednesday,
it will probably look completely different, but which course it will
take, beats me!

I think that what they are showing up to and including Friday is now
very consistent, but after that it's still up for debate, though the 12Z
ECMWF ensemble is in good agreement with the operational run for some
warming on Saturday and Sunday. After that, the ensemble sticks with
milder conditions, though the slack flow and still on the low side 850mb
temperature shown on the mean chart suggests that there's no great
certainty.

One thing going for it is the last week of January and
the first week of February are when the average tempertures drawn
through the year bottom out, so it couldn't come at a better time.

Or worse, depending on your point of view. (I thought I'd say it before
one of those who don't like the cold did so.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw