On Jan 14, 4:57*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 14, 12:02*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.

Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.

12z gfs continues the theme.

ECM 12z hangs onto its colder theme by its bootstraps. I think it will
probably be gone tomorrow, but my confidence in zonal conditions
returning still hovers below 80%