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Old January 14th 12, 11:02 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
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Default A short-lived colder spell, then back to milder and zonal again?

The gfs ensembles have suggested this for 24 hours now and there are
fewer colder scenarios after 10 days, in the 06z ensembles:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

The gfs operational has shown it for 3 runs and the ECM was suggesting
the same on the 00z at 10 days. If the gfs continues in the same theme
and is supported by the ECM, I may forecast a return to zonal at T240.
I'm not certain yet and my criteria for forecasting have not yet been
satisfied, but ATM, that seems the most likely outcome.

Like the last 3 days, there is still nothing in the models that
suggests confidence enough for a forecast that is likely to be
accurate.